College Football Picks - Cardinals vs Owls Hidden Gem Of Week 4

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, September 21, 2016 8:53 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 21, 2016 8:53 PM UTC

Your patience from the first 3 weeks will now be rewarded, as we have increasingly more data to make an analysis. Not that it has been bad so far with selections on this site for the year to date standing 16-7 ATS (70%) in CFB and NFL combined.

Week 4 of the College Football season is traditionally the first strong week of the season.  This year is no exception, as it is the strongest and deepest card of the season to date.  This includes more Top Plays than in the first 3 weeks combined, be sure to have the best sportsbooks recommendations ready to start betting.


Ball St. (-3-) vs. Florida Atlantic
Ball St. travels to Florida Atlantic for their final non-conference game of the season, before returning home next week to face 6-time MAC West divisional title-holder, N. Illinois, in their opening MAC game.  There is a good chance the Cards will be peeking ahead to that game.  Likewise, Florida Atlantic looks forward to their conference season directly ahead, but with a much different mindset.  This is a prime example of my Article of the Week entitled “The AFP Now Enters a 3 Week Bonanza.”


Under 1st year HC Mike Neu, the Cards have soared to a 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS start, following their 3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS debacle last season under since departed, 5th year HC Pete Lembo.  With 9 defensive starters returning, the major improvement for Ball St. has come on the defensive end where, after allowing 36/518 last year, they are now allowing just 22 PPG, while holding Georgia St. and E. Kentucky under 300 YPG and the high-powered Indiana offense under 500 YPG.  In so doing, Ball St. has gone 3-0 ATS, covering the spread by 34 points.  


For Florida Atlantic, it has been a dichotomous story.  Under 3rd year HC Partridge, the Owls after a pair of 3-9 SU seasons, have started 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS.  After opening with an 8 point home win over S. Illinois, the Owls took to the road to face high-powered competition at Miami, FL and Kansas St.  When the dust cleared, Florida Atlantic returned home being outscored 101-17 and being outgained 965-425.  They have now failed to cover the number by 40 points, setting up a (-74) AFP in their favor.  


My AFP theory has worked its magic, as the Owls are an underdog of  more than 3 points in a game, where they would have been favored by a TD on opening week. 


Adding to the value of this line is the fact that the Owls are now on a slide of 2-12 ATS, including 1-7 SU ATS on this field.   Their (63-7) loss at Kansas St. last week was fueled by a (-3) net TO margin, providing additional value in this line.  Finally, the underdog has ruled the day in the first 2 seasons for HC Partridge at Florida Atlantic.  Going into this season, the dog in Florida Atlantic games is 18-5 ATS.  With Ball St. looking forward to their home opening conference revenge vs. perennial champion N. Illinois and Florida Atlantic needing a confidence-boosting win after losing to the big boys, we gladly grab any points available in a value-laden HIDDEN GEM GAME OF THE WEEK.  I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me in my college football betting on Florida Atlantic this evening.


NCAAF Free Picks: Florida Atlantic 3.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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