College Football Picks: California vs. Oregon Betting the Total

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 27, 2013 3:20 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 27, 2013 3:20 PM UTC

The San Diego State Aztecs and New Mexico State Aggies are both without wins, while logging a combined 1-6 spread record. Let's look at the Match-up for our sports betting.

The California Golden Bears and the Oregon Ducks get together on Saturday in the PAC-12 opener for both teams. According to the current college football betting odds Oregon is a 36.5-point favorite and the total is a mammoth 83.5. The Ducks have defeated the Bears in 9 of the last 10 games played in Eugene, Oregon. In addition Oregon has covered 8 of those 10 contests.

Oregon Offense is Unstoppable and Defense is Stout 

Oregon enters the week as the #2 ranked team and the country and sporting a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS record. The Ducks won those 3 games by a resounding 52.3 points per game. All 3 of those contests went over the total with an average combined score of 70.3 points per game. Oregon has accounted for the majority of the scoring in those contests as they’ve averaged 61.3 points per game so far in 2013. The Ducks are #2 in the country in total offense averaging an unbelievable 672 yards per game. It would be easy to overlook how well the Oregon defense has played this season when you see the eye popping numbers that the offense has amassed. However, the stop unit has allowed just 9.0 points per game which is currently 6th best in the nation.

Is Cal Playing Arena Football?

The scores of the first 3 Cal games this season have resembled those of some Arena League Football games. The Bears have scored 30 or more points in each of those contests. That’s the good news. The bad news is they’re allowing 42 points per game and opponents have been able to run the ball with a high degree of success thus far. Like the Ducks the Bears have seen their first 3-games of the season all go over the total with an average combined score of 75.7 points per contest. One of the few bright spots in their 1-2 start to the season is the play of true freshmen quarterback Jared Goff. In his first 3 college career starts Goff has passed for 1301 yards (433.7 ypg.) and 7 touchdowns. 

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The Final Analysis

As I have mentioned on several occasions in the past I hate to lay this big a number, and have a difficult time making a case for an underdog that has virtually no chance of winning the game outright. Oregon will have a field day running the ball on Saturday versus an extremely porous Cal rush defense. That will only open things up even more for Marcus Mariota and the passing game. Both of these defenses will be facing the best offenses by far that they’ve seen this season. I can’t fathom Oregon not scoring a minimum 60 points in this game. Cal has already proven it can move the ball versus quality opponents in their losses versus nationally ranked Ohio St. and Northwestern. Although this is an absurd number for a total it’s that high for good reason. I have the smallest of leans on going over the huge number in this game for my college football picks.

Free Pick: California/Oregon Over 83.5 at Bet365

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