College Football Picks: BYU vs. Memphis in Miami Beach Bowl

Ross Benjamin

Monday, December 15, 2014 7:58 PM GMT

Read our early Miami Beach Bowl handicapping preview article for the game between BYU and Memphis. Included is a terrific betting angle which has gone 56-25 since 1992!

Intriguing Bowl Matchup in South Beach
The BYU Cougars (8-4) will take on the Memphis Tigers (9-3) in the Miami Beach Bowl on Monday December 22nd at Marlins Park. Kickoff is slated for 2:00 PM ET and the game will be televised nationally by ESPN. According to the College Football odds at Pinnacle, Memphis is currently a 1.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 57.5.

 

Higher Expectations Shattered by Key Injury
The BYU Cougars opened the season by winning their first 4-games, and there was talk of them possibly going undefeated due to what was being viewed as a soft remaining schedule. However, in that 5th game at home versus Utah State, they were upset 35-20 as a 21.0 point favorite. They also received a crushing blow when their star quarterback and Heisman hopeful Taysom Hill suffered a broken leg in the 2nd quarter of that contest, and was lost for the season. The Cougars proceeded to lose each of their next 3-games, and fell to 4-4 on the year. They showed a ton of character and resiliency by rebounding to win their remaining 4-games of the regular season to finish at 8-4. The Cougars also concluded the year by going over the total in 7 of their last 9-games.

 

Breakout Season in Memphis
The Memphis Tigers football program had suffered through some lean years, going an awful 12-48 from the 2009 through the 2013 seasons. Justin Fuente has done an excellent job in turning the program around in his 3rd year as head coach. They finished in a 3-way tie with Cincinnati and Central Florida atop the American Athletic Association standings with a 7-1 record. The Tigers finished the regular season by winning their last 6-games. Although, it must be noted, that those 6-wins came versus opponents that went a combined 18-54 (.250) this season. As a matter of fact, the Tigers only defeated one team with a winning record in 2014, and that came in a 41-14 blowout victory at Cincinnati back on October 4th. The Tigers finished the regular season by going over the total in 5 of their last 7-games.

 

Final Analysis
BYU racked up 540 and 487-yards of total offense in their last 2-games. The Cougars allowed an average of 384-yards of offense by the opposition this season. The Memphis Tigers allowed an average of 344-yards of offense to opponents on the year. Taking all this into account, it fits perfectly into a college football betting system that’s certainly passed the test of time, and one I’ll definitely use to my advantage when making one of my College Football picks this bowl season.

Any team (BYU) with a total of 56.5 to 63.0 that had 450-yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 2-games, and both teams are allowing 330 to 390-yards of total offense by opponents per game, has seen 56 of those 81-games (69.1%) go over the total since 1992.

Free College Football Pick: BYU/Memphis to go over the total of 57.5 at BetOnline Sportsbook