College Football Picks: Boise State vs. Utah State

Ross Benjamin

Friday, October 11, 2013 6:27 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 11, 2013 6:27 PM GMT

The Boise St. Broncos travel to Logan, Utah on Saturday to face the Aggies of Utah St. with kickoff scheduled for 8:00 PM ET.

CFB Preview

According to current college football betting odds Boise St. is a 7.0-point road favorite and the total is set at 50.0. The last time these teams met was on 12/4/2010 in Boise and the Broncos defeated the Aggies 50-14 but failed to cover as a 38.5-point favorite.

Rested and Ready Broncos 

Boise St. has been idle for the last 2 weeks after a busy first month that saw them go 3-2. The Broncos were able to easily win all 3 home games 60-7 over Southern Mississippi, 42-20 versus Air Force, and 63-14 over Tennessee-Martin. Unfortunately things didn’t go as well on the road where they fell to two nationally ranked teams. They lost at 15th ranked Washington in their season opener 38-6 and then a heartbreaker at #23 Fresno St. 41-40. Boise has seen their last 4-games all go over the total with an average combined 71.8 points scored. Once again the Broncos possess one of the top offenses in the country statistically, averaging 42.2 points, and 491.4 yards per game. However, this is far from the dominating defense that we’ve seen at Boise in recent years. In their 2 losses this season the Broncos defense allowed opponents to score 79-points and accumulate 1114 yards of total offense, including 784 through the air. 

Crushing Blow to the Aggies

It was bad enough suffering a 31-14 home upset loss to in-state rival BYU last week. The news got even worse after losing starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton during that contest to a season ending knee injury. The junior has been a vital component in the resurgence of the football program at Utah St. This season alone Keeton was completing 69.2% of his passes, threw for 18 touchdowns, and ran for another 2. In his career Keeton has 56 touchdown passes versus just 13 interceptions in addition to running for 1153 yards and 14 scores. Needless to say it was a devastating loss for the Aggies well above the game itself. Keeton will be replaced by junior Craig Harrison who is 31-55 (56.4%) in his career with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. I look for Utah St. to lean heavily on their running back tandem of Joey DeMartino and Joe Hill who have combined to rush for 677 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. The Aggies defense will also need to step it up a notch even though they’ve been outstanding this year ranking 25th in the country in yards allowed per game.

Let's have a look at the Week 7 Value Picks~

[gameodds]6/239073/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Final Analysis

This is a very tough spot for Utah St. even despite enjoying home field advantage. Excluding an FCS opponent Weber St. the Aggies 2 wins this season came versus Air Force and San Jose St. who are a combined 1-8 this season versus FBS foes. In addition they will be facing a Boise St. team that hasn’t played in 3 weeks and is healthy in addition to being well rested. The Broncos are off to a disappointing start to the season by their standards so the possibility of them being flat for this contest is slim. I hate laying points on the road. However, there’s an exception to every rule. Lay the points with Boise St. for your college football picks on Saturday.

Free Pick: Boise St. -7.0 over Utah St.

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