College Football Picks: Big ATS Value on W. Kentucky +17 vs. LSU

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 4:04 PM GMT

We’re going to examine Saturday’s game between Western Kentucky & LSU. Which one of these teams will win ATS after this contest goes final? Go inside to get that answer and a free pick.

Western Kentucky vs. LSU (-17) 7:00 ET ESPNU
Western Kentucky visits LSU for this non-conference game at 7:00 ET Saturday evening as televised on ESPNU. Each of these teams is off to a 4-0 SU start in their respective conference action. But only one of these teams will consider this game to be of higher priority than their opponent! That is a Western Kentucky team from the lesser respected CUSA Conference who will have this contest against an SEC opponent circled on their calendar as the most important remaining game of their season. The Hilltoppers will be solidly favored in their remaining 4 league games vs. ODU, Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l and Marshall. For LSU, they enter today following a win over a respected Florida team. The last 4 games on their SEC slate are Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. This game clearly has the lowest priority for LSU 11th year HC Miles.    

Last week, LSU squeezed by Florida (35-28). Behind Heisman hopeful RB Fournette, LSU ran for 221 yards (the 6th game in which they have rambled for that amount). Equally impressive is that, in consecutive weeks, LSU has now passed for more than 200 yards. But, their bread and butter is on the ground, where they average 327/7.0. Yes, they will do business against a Western Kentucky defensive front allowing 174/4.5.   Last week, Western Kentucky rolled to a 55-28 victory vs. outmanned North Texas. They recorded 683 yards of offense. It was the 6th consecutive week that the Hilltoppers have gained more than 500 yards and the 6th consecutive week that behind QB Doughty, threw for 400 or more yards. Doughty is now averaging 387 PYPG with a 24/4 ratio. Western Kentucky has a strong history in this role with a 5-1 ATS mark when taking 10 or more and a 5-1 ATS mark against SEC foes. We can all agree that Western Kentucky 2nd year HC Brohm will have some special tricks for the LSU defense.  

 

Final Analysis
This play has a lot going for it!  It starts with the huge situational advantage for the big dog and includes a strong history in the respective roles of each team, as well as perhaps the most important aspect of this play … value in the betting line.  How often do you get to play a team, who is on a 5-game winning streak, 6-1 SU for the season and 5-2 ATS with a positive net AFP of (+76) and still get to take the same number you would opening week against an opponent who is 2-3 ATS with a (-19) AFP?  That last fact puts the college football odds in our favor!  I know you will join me for this college football pick as the big dog of the week. 

College Football Pick: Western Kentucky +17 at 5Dimes

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