College Football Picks: Betting Trends Favor Lafayette Over S. Alabama

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 1:23 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 1:23 PM GMT

Our college football handicapper examines Thursday’s UL-Lafayette & South Alabama game. Join us in reading this betting preview article that comes with a college football pick.

Thursday Night in the Sun Belt
South Alabama will host UL-Lafayette on Thursday in a Sun Belt Conference clash. The opening kickoff at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile is slated for 7:30 PM ET. Current (11/10) college football odds indicates that South Alabama is a 3.0 point favorite. UL-Lafayette defeated South Alabama at home last season by a score of 19-9.

 

The Ragin’ Cajuns
The Ragin’ Cajuns of UL-Lafayette have been a difficult team to gauge. Their performance lines have been all over the map this season. The defense allowed 138 yards or more rushing in each of their first six games. Then in the last two contests they held UL-Monroe to 76 yards rushing, and Georgia State amassed only 78 yards. During the first six games they were a terrible -8 turnover differential, and in their previous contests were a +3. They were 1-3 in the non-conference portion of their schedule, and the lone win came against Northwestern State who plays at the FCS level. They’ve had more success since starting conference play, going 3-1 against Sun Belt opponents, and that includes winning each their last two.

 

Jaguars hold their Own
South Alabama enters the final quarter of their regular season with a 4-4 record. Their most impressive win of the season came at San Diego State. The Jaguars upset the Aztecs 34-27 as a 17.5 point underdog. The following week they were afforded a rare opportunity to host a “Power Five Conference” team when North Carolina State came to town. Unfortunately they were dealt a reality check and were hammered by the Wolfpack 63-13. They’ve gone 4-4 thus far, and a realistic goal at this juncture is to become bowl eligible. Winning on Thursday and at Georgia State the following week will be crucial if they hope to Receive a bowl invitation. They close the season against arguably the two best Sun Belt Conference teams in Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

 

Super ATS Betting Angle
UL-Lafayette enters this game with a 4-4 (.500) record this season. South Alabama is coming off a 52-45 home win over Idaho. This sets up a straightforward and extremely profitable betting angle that I’ll utilize when making one of my college football picks.

Any road favorite or underdog of 3 or less, possessing a winning percentage of better than .333, versus an opponent coming off a home win by 4 points or more, resulted in that road team going 46-10 ATS (82.9%) since 2011.

College Football Pick: UL-Lafayette +3 at 5Dimes

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