College Football Picks: Betting Angle Backs UCLA +6.5 vs. Stanford

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 1:05 PM GMT

Our college football expert shares his early view on Thursday’s contest between UCLA & Stanford. Join us in reading this compelling betting preview which concludes with a point spread pick.

PAC-12 Thursday Night Lights
The #15 Stanford Cardinal hosts #18 UCLA on Thursday. The opening kickoff at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, California is slated for 10:30 PM ET, and the game will be aired by ESPN. At the time of this writing (10/12), college football betting odds indicate that Stanford is a 6.5 point favorite, and the posted total is 56.0. Stanford has won the last seven games between these PAC-12 rivals, and the Cardinal were 6-1 ATS in those matchups.

 

Shock and Embarrassment
UCLA was knocked out of the unbeaten ranks in their last game, losing 38-23 to Arizona State as a 13.0 point home favorite in their previous contest. What’s been very concerning is the Bruins defense. They’ve allowed an average of 30.3 points and 446.0 yards per game during their last three. The loss dropped their record to 4-1 overall and 1-1 in PAC-12 action. On a positive note, the Bruins had last week off. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, UCLA has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS following a week of rest, and they won those contests by an average of 19.1 points per game.

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Surging Cardinal
Stanford opened the season with a listless effort during a 16-6 loss at Northwestern. We know now that Northwestern is a much better team that anyone though at that specific juncture. Since that defeat, they’ve gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last four, and won by an average of 20.0 points per game. The Cardinal offense has been humming during this win streak, averaging 42.3 points and 505.8 yards per contest. Stanford played their best game to date in a 55-17 romp over Arizona in their last outing. They easily covered as a 12.5 point favorite, and outgained Arizona 570 to 314.

 

College Football Betting Angle
Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 that failed to cover their previous game by 21.0 or more, versus an opponent that covered their previous game by 21.0 or more, and that opponent (Stanford) has a .300 or better winning percentage, resulted in that away underdog going 24-3 ATS (88.8%) since 1996. The underdog also won 18 of those 27 contests outright. This handicapping algorithm clearly indicates why public perception is most times a short sighted and distorted view.

 

Final Analysis
It’s easy to kick a team (UCLA) when they’re down, and jump on the bandwagon of one that’s red-hot. It’s even more rewarding to spot a sucker play and act upon it. There’s no fear in that regard from this writer. It’s the road underdog for me as one of my college football picks.

College Football Pick: Play on UCLA +6.5 at BetCRIS.

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