College Football Picks: Bet UCF Knights +19 vs. Stanford

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, September 9, 2015 4:44 PM GMT

We take a look at the betting odds, as Central Florida stands as the big underdog play of the weekend. Join us as we preview this game's betting lines and serve a free college football pick. 

Each week in this space, I will isolate the most valuable undergod play of the week. It will be a selection in which our team is an underdog of 6 or more points and It will be a blend of statistical, situational and technical analysis that will result in an outstanding opportunity for you to cash a winning ticket.

 

 

UCF travels the 3,000 miles coast to coast (not even these guys play football at 10:30at night) against the Stanford Cardinal. Each of these teams comes off a loss as a double digit favorite last week in their opening game, putting up miserable offensive performances. Yet, the linemaker’s adjustment clearly makes this an overlay on Stanford, who would have been less than a 2 TD favorite, if this game were played at any time in the previous 12 months.

Stanford looked disoriented in their 9:00 a.m. ET body start as 12 point road chalk at Northwestern last week. An improved Northwestern team led wire-to-wire in a dominating (16-6) victory, an easy ATS winner, one of 14 of the 20 games in which I had written analysis last week. The Wildcats outrushed a rebuilding Cardinal defense 225-85. Highly thought of Stanford QB Hogan looked disoriented in leading a Stanford passing attack to just 155 yards. The conservative play calling of HC Shaw, with Stanford trailing by double digits in the 4th, was mystifying. Following a 3-0 SU ATS finish to last season, much more was expected from a veteran QB and a perennially tough defense that has not allowed more than 20 PPG in each of the previous 3 seasons. I am well aware that the Cardinal is 7-1 ATS/loss, but there is no precedent for a Game 2 bounce back by last year’s Bowlers following a Game 1 defeat.

The 15-14 loss by UCF to in-state rival, Florida Intl, as 17 point favorite on the college football odds was not as mystifying to this bureau.  FIU is a team on the rise under HC Turner. In outgaining UCF 391-295, the Panthers outrushed the Knights 131-46. Much like Stanford, this UCF team, under 12th year HC O’Leary, is built from the ground up on defense. Over the last 4 years, they have allowed a cumulative 20 PPG, including just 19 PPG LY, only 298 total yards and only 104/3.2 overland. In a defensive battle with offenses that have not gotten on track, 19 points is a mountain, considering the success of UCF in this role under O’Leary. Long-term, that record is 20-10 ATS as road dog with the Knights standing 6-1 ATS as underdog the last 2 seasons.   

College Football Free Pick: Central Florida +19 at Bet365