College Football Picks: Baylor vs. Kansas State

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 8, 2013 6:24 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2013 6:24 PM UTC

The 15th ranked Baylor Bears go on the road for the first time this season as they take on the Kansas St. Wildcats. The Bears are coming in off of a big win, but should we back another large cover with our college football picks this weekend?

According to college football odds boards, this line first opened with Baylor as a 20.5-point favorite but has swiftly moved to its current number of 17.0. This huge move has taken place despite 85% of public money being wagered on Baylor thus far. Baylor won last season’s meeting in Waco, Texas upsetting the Wildcats 52-24 as a 12.5-point underdog.

Take a look at my College Football Picks: Opening Odds Report for Week 6.

The Bears are shorting out the Scoreboards

Baylor is off to an impressive 4-0 start which has seen them score 69-points or more in each game. As a matter of fact the Bears have scored 70 or more in their last 3 contests. According to my 4D handicapping software program only 3 teams prior to this season have scored 70 or more in 2 consecutive games since the start of the 1980 season. Baylor was the first to do it 3-times in a row over that same span in last week’s 73-42 win over West Virginia. In that win over the Mountaineers the Bears amassed an incredible 864 yards of total offense. The Bears jumped out to a 56-14 halftime lead in that contest and then substituted freely in the 2nd half. In their first 4-games the Baylor offense has had 694 yards or more of total offense in each contest. Those are absolutely mind boggling numbers.

The Bears are #1 in the nation in total yards, passing yards, and points per game. They rank #2 in rushing offense at 347.2 yards per game. Dating back to last season the Bears are 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. Junior quarterback Bryce Petty has completed 72.1% of his passes this season while throwing for 10 touchdowns and suffered just 1 interception.

Down Year for the Wildcats

This isn’t one of Bill Snyder’s better teams in his two tenures as head coach at Kansas St. The Wildcats are off to a disappointing 2-3 starts including a season opening loss at home to North Dakota St. They just missed pulling off the upset last week on the road versus nationally ranked Oklahoma St. before falling 33-29 while easily covering as a 12.5-point underdog. The Wildcats 2 wins this season has come versus Massachusetts and UL-Lafayette. Since 11/6/2010 the Wildcats are 4-1 SU&ATS as a home underdog. Kansas St. is also a very profitable 11-2 ATS in their last 13-games as a conference underdog including winning 8 of those 13-games outright.


Final Analysis 

History certainly doesn’t favor Baylor is this scenario. Since 1980 all teams that started the season with 4 home wins and then went on the road in game 5 have been 0-5 ATS. Those teams have also lost 3 of those 5-games straight up. This looks to be a total mismatch on paper but the last I checked games weren’t played on paper. The old adage of, “if it smells like a rat, and looks like a rat, then it’s a rat” comes to mind when setting up my college football picks for this contest. I just have that sneaky feeling that Kansas St. will give Baylor all they can handle in their first road game of the season. I have the slightest of leans on the home underdog in this contest.

Free Pick: Kansas St. +17 over Baylor

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