College Football Picks for Baylor-SMU ESPN Showdown

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 3, 2015 12:33 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 3, 2015 12:33 PM GMT

The Baylor Bears visit the SMU Mustangs for the opening game of the 2015 CFB campaign for each team.  All eyes will be on Top 5 Baylor with the ESPN cameras whirring.  I don’t know about you, but I have had just about enough of the talking heads espousing the excellence of Baylor, both in the years gone by and their projections for this upcoming football season.

Baylor (-35) at SMU 7:00 ET ESPN

The Baylor Bears visit the SMU Mustangs for the opening game of the 2015 CFB campaign for each team, with College Football odds favoring the Bears by a hefty 35 points.  All eyes will be on Top 5 Baylor with the ESPN cameras whirring.  I don’t know about you, but I have had just about enough of the talking heads espousing the excellence of Baylor, both in the years gone by and their projections for this upcoming football season.  There is no question that the Bears have been a team on the rise.  Under 8th year HC Art Briles, the Bears have reached the pinnacle of the CFB world with Bowl appearances in each of the previous 5 seasons.  In the last 2 years alone, the Bears are 22-4 SU, while in the last 4 years, Baylor has a combined record of 32-16 ATS.  But, what goes up in college football … must come down!  With numbers approaching the stratosphere, look for the overrated Bears to disappoint their backers once mid-October rolls around.  With an easy schedule the first 2 months, the Bears are clearly favored to be 7-0 SU, as they enter a brutal November stretch. 

O/U Trends to Apply When Betting This Game

What makes the Baylor Bears such an exciting team is their high-powered offense.  After scoring 52 PPG in 2013 on an average of 619 YPG, Baylor was expected to regress.  But last year’s number of 48 PPG on 581 YPG means they barely skipped a beat.  In the last 4 seasons, they have run for at least 215 YPG and passed for at least 340 YPG. With 9 RS to the offensive side of the ball, look for the Bears to again be an offensive juggernaut.  But, that is not all this team is about.  For, this is a vastly improved defensive team over the 2012 edition.  In the last 2 seasons, Baylor has allowed a combined 24 PPG and just 371 YPG.  Those are impressive numbers when you consider the offensive output.

Last year, SMU took 33 points from Baylor in Waco and got smacked 45-0!  The game was every bit as bad as the final score with the yardage in favor of Baylor 574-67.  The bully role has been one that has been good to Bear backers, as under HC Briles, the Bears are recently 8-1 ATS L2Y, when laying 30 or more points (conversely, SMU has faltered in this role with a record of 1-5 ATS as home dog last year, failing 58-6 to A&M, 56-0 to TCU, 41-3 to Cincinnati, 48-10 to Memphis and 35-9 to Houston).  As good as Baylor was last year is as bad as SMU was in 2014.  It was so bad that 7th year HC June Jones quit in the 2nd week of the season.  The Ponies were embarrassed going 1-11 SU (beat UConn the last week of the season), being outscored 41-11 and outgained 499-269.  In an effort to turnaround the program, SMU has hired former Clemson OC, Chad Morris, an offensive guru.  This is about a large of a discrepancy as any you will see in an opening CFB game.  And, I have learned over the years that “when it looks this easy … you had better look the other way with your College Football picks.”

Ponies prance, at the price, of course.

Free College Football Picks: Take SMU +36 at BetOnline

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