College Football Picks: Back Kentucky +14 as the Lesser of Two Evils vs. Georgia

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 11:05 PM GMT

Our handicapper previews Saturday’s SEC contest between Kentucky and Georgia. Which one of these embattled teams will right the ship? Go inside to read his college football pick.

Wildcats and Bulldogs “Between the Hedges”
Georgia hosts Kentucky on Saturday in a clash of two struggling SEC teams. The opening kickoff at Sanford Stadium in Athens is slated for Noon ET. The current (11/3) college football odds at Heritage have Georgia as a 14-point favorite. Georgia is 2-0 SU&ATS in the last two seasons versus Kentucky, and won those games by a cumulative score of 122-48 (37.0 PPG). The last time Kentucky defeated Georgia was during a 34-27 home win in 2009.

 

Awful Recent Resumes
Kentucky was off to an encouraging 4-1 start to the season, and their only loss in that sequence was a narrow 14-9 defeat to currently #11 Florida. Things have unraveled since that time. The Wildcats have gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last three games, losing by an average of 20.0 points per contest, and now find themselves at 4-4. During their current losing streak, they’ve allowed an average of 41.3 points and 491.7 yards per game.

Georgia began the season 4-0, and has then proceeded to lose three of their next four games. Their only victory in that sequence was an uninspiring 9-6 home win against Missouri. The Bulldogs are now 2-3 in SEC action, and have gone a horrible 0-5 ATS in those contests. Things have really seemed to go south for Georgia with no pun intended, following a season ending knee injury to star running back Nick Chubb, and that occurred on their first offensive play against Alabama.

 

College Football ATS Betting Angle
Kentucky has lost their last two games by 26 and 31 points respectively. Florida comes off an embarrassing performance during a 27-3 loss to Florida last Saturday.

Any road underdog of 19.5 or less (Kentucky), coming off back to back losses by 17 points or more in each contest, versus an opponent (Georgia) that scored 14 points or less in their previous game, resulted in the road underdog going 32-14 ATS (69.5%) since 2006. This is a handicapping algorithm that makes a lot of sense, and one that I’ll follow when making one of my college football picks this week.

College Football Picks: Play on Kentucky +14 at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2830118, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]