College Football Picks: Back Georgia Southern at Value Price of +13.5 vs. Georgia

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 9:02 PM GMT

In this article we preview the game between in-state rivals Georgia Southern and Georgia and provide our Big Dog of the Week college football pick.

Georgia Southern vs. Georgia (-14-) 7:00 ET ESPNU
Georgia Southern travels to face in-state rival Georgia for this 7:00 ET kickoff on ESPNU.  This game is a big deal for “little brother” GA Southern against “big brother” Georgia.” Look for the Eagles to soar for us, as they feature both fundamental and situational advantages in this game.  Georgia Southern enters this game at 7-2 SU ATS with a (+61) net AFP.  Georgia enters the contest at 7-3 SU, 3-6 ATS with a (-51) AFP.  That makes Georgia an AFP play with an 8 point line advantage over where this game would have been opening week.  As such, it means that the double digit dog must use all of their fundamental and situational advantage to get the pointspread win.  I believe they will.

 

Georgia Southern Eagles
Detractors from this play will point to the Week 1 GA Southern loss at WVU by a count of (44-0) as 17 point underdog.  It is most important to note in that game that starting QB Ellison was sitting out that contest for the first of a 2 game suspension to begin the season.  His replacement, Upshaw, was horrendous in gifting the game to the Mountaineers.  Since Ellison has returned to the controls, the Eagles have been virtually unstoppable.  As an example of the GA Southern ability to get up for big games, I point to their (24-23) loss as +20 at NC State last year and their (42-38) loss as +16 at GA Tech last season (another “big brother” in-state rival).  The Eagles bring the best running game in the country when they travel to Athens today.  Behind QB Ellison, they average 379/6.7 overland (virtually identical to their 383/7.2 numbers from last year).  The Georgia defensive front is solid but it has not faced a triple option attack that is anywhere near this efficient all season.  With season-ending home games against S. Alabama and GA State, there is little doubt that this is the Bowl game of the year for GA Southern.  They warmed up for the event last week by outscoring a red-hot Troy team (45-10) with a 325-68 overland advantage.

 

Georgia Bulldogs
This is a lost season for the Georgia Bulldogs, who were expected to contend for the SEC-East title.  Those dreams disintegrated long ago with losses to Alabama, Tennessee and Florida in the month of October.  Last week, they were fortunate to squeeze by a sub-par Auburn team by a score of 20-13, when the Bulldogs needed all of a (+3) net TO margin to offset being outgained 275-243.  There is little doubt that the big game on the Georgia schedule is their revenge meeting next week against GA Tech, who defeated them (30-24).  Sandwiched between Auburn and GA Tech is the perfect opportunity for GA Southern to catch the Bulldogs a bit flat.

Combination of the strong situation and the fundamentals of the GA Southern ground game are the ideal marriage for a double digit, in-state, season ending underdog.  I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me in my college football pick on GA Southern as our CFB Big Dog Play of the Week.  As such, we look forward to it having the same success as Syracuse last week, when they caught No. 1 Clemson in a flat spot!

College Football Picks: Georgia Southern +13.5 at Pinnacle

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