College Football Picks: Back Arkansas to Cover ATS vs. Tennessee

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 7:51 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 7:51 PM GMT

What you perceived in last week’s game is not always the reality of this week. Joe weaves his ATS magic through the wand of bounce backs and letdowns for saturday’s college football pick.

Arkansas vs. Tennessee (-6-) - 7:00 ET ESPN 2
Arkansas and Tennessee face off at 7:00 ET Saturday night as televised by ESPN 2. It will be a battle of the QBs Allen, when these teams take the field. The public will give much respect to Tennessee after outings in 2 of the previous 3 weeks, when they led both Oklahoma and Florida in the late going, before succumbing to each. Meanwhile, there is no love from the public after Arkansas has fallen to 0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS in the last 3 weeks with losses to Toledo, Texas Tech and Texas A&M. 

Tennessee endured a gut-wrenching loss to Florida for the 2nd time in 3 weeks. The Gators had won 10 consecutive games against the Vols, yet Tennessee was leading 27-14. Florida came all the way back, taking the lead with a 60-yard TD pass with a minute to play. Yet, the Vols still had a chance to win the game, until a 50-yard FG was narrowly wide on the last play of the game! It was just 2 weeks previous to that loss that the Vols lost in double OT on this field to Oklahoma (31-24), blowing a 17-0 lead. Despite a whopping 18 RS, remember that this is a relatively young Tennessee team that is gradually being rebuilt under 3rd year HC Jones. Those 2 losses were painful steps in the rebuilding process, but will eventually pay dividends in the future. Till then, it is buyer beware when the Vols are favored in competitively priced games.  Despite their travails,Tennessee is 3-1 ATS, covering by a net 12 points.  

That is far from the 1-3 SU ATS record of Arkansas who has a (-49) net AFP. Thus, the reason why the Vols are a TD favorite here, as opposed to the underdog price, that would have prevailed at the start of the season. It is also the reason why the public has little love for the Hogs. A brief review of their 3-game losing streak finds that they outgained both, Toledo and Texas Tech, in losses as double digit home favorite. Last week vs. A&M, they survived an Aggies’ game-winning FG attempt late in the game, only to lose by 7 points (pointspread win/tie/loss) in OT. A view of their stats shows positive numbers for Arkansas. Under new OC Enos (former HC C. Michigan), the Hogs are starting to balance their offense, passing for 285/9.6 YPG. That showed in their loss to the Aggies last week, when they outrushed A&M 232-65 and put up a balanced 225 passing yards. The mammoth OL will continue to make that happen. Equally impressive is a defensive front that allows just 94/3.6. It is that unit that will slow the Vols’ run game (248/4.7) and turn this into a most competitive contest. 

No one but you, me and the lone ranger will be on these Hogs again, just as we were in this very spot last week. Without doubt, this is our college football pick as the lone ranger contrarian play. Once again value abounds with the college footballl odds providing more than a TD of value over where this line would have been in Week 1. Ride with the lone ranger once again for this contrary winner!

 College Football Pick: Arkansas +6.5 at BetOnline

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