College Football Picks: Back Arkansas -4 at Home vs. Miss State

Steven Suarez

Thursday, November 19, 2015 11:56 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015 11:56 PM UTC

Quietly the Razorbacks have been playing great football, and they're going to need to be at their best to overcome Ole Miss this Saturday. It's time to break down the college football odds and see where the true value is.

Odds Overview
Because of their recent hot streak, the Razorbacks are favored for this weekend's home game against the Bulldogs. They've clearly been on a roll and now oddsmakers have been much more willing to put their faith in them to show up each week.

As of now, we see Arkansas favored by four points at most of the top sportsbooks. The college football odds board shows the total at 58 points.


Arkansas Razorbacks
Back when they were 2-4, no one thought the Razorbacks would wind up making the run they have. They were bad to start the season, but they've since turned their season around, having picked up four consecutive victories to move to 6-4 overall and 4-2 in the tough SEC.

With Brandon Allen and Alex Collins leading the charge, Arkansas has been getting it done offensively, and that's helped them beat Auburn, UT Martin, Ole Miss and then LSU in consecutive games. Those road wins over the Tigers and Rebels have been the most impressive, and those show that they're not just benefiting from an easy schedule. The Razorbacks are battle tested and have risen to the challenge on a consecutive basis these days.

As a team, Arkansas is averaging an even 34 points a game, and Allen should be getting way more credit than he has been. He's accounted for a 22:6 TD:INT ratio and has formed great chemistry with top wideout Drew Morgan, who's caught nine of those touchdowns. Collins, meanwhile, has been a beast out of the backfield, running for 1,209 yards and 14 touchdowns ahead of Saturday.


Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were high on confidence before they ran into the brick wall known as Alabama's defense. They were held to only six points in a 31-6 defeat against the Crimson Tide their last time out, and that heavy defeat came at home to make matters worse.

Considering they've got one of the more talented quarterbacks in Dak Prescott at the helm, it's not very often you see Mississippi State get stifled like that, but this Bulldogs offense doesn't quite pack as much of a punch as it used to. Prescott has accounted for 25 of the team's touchdowns and is the team's leading passer and rusher. Perhaps that offensive responsibility has simply been too great for State to find as much success as they'd like.

The schedule also hasn't been as tough for the Bulldogs this season. They have played the likes of Alabama and Texas A&M, but all in all their schedule has been friendlier than most. That doesn't help boost our confident in the team's chances for Saturday.


Betting Analysis
It's been a wild ride seeing Arkansas turn their season around, and quickly this has become a team we can feel more confident in backing. The Razorbacks have proven their worth over the last month or so, and now find themselves in a favorable position to earn another win, on their home turf no less.

While Mississippi State is no slouch, last week's brutal loss to Alabama notwithstanding, we don't see the Bulldogs making enough big plays to ultimately cover this spread as underdogs.

The Arkansas is firing on all cylinders right now, with the team having scored at least 31 points in each of their last four wins. With the home crowd on their side and up against a State team that could be feeling down on themselves after a total dud versus the Crimson Tide, we look for the Razorbacks to not only win straight up but also cover the spread for those that back them with their college football picks.

College Football Picks: Arkansas Razorbacks -4 at 5Dimes

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