College Football Picks: Auburn Not a True Contender for Ole Miss -6

David Lawrence

Monday, October 26, 2015 12:53 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 26, 2015 12:53 PM GMT

Auburn will need to beat Ole Miss if they want to drastically improve their bowl odds, but it will be an uphill climb for the Tigers on Saturday. Review our betting odds and wager on the winning pick.

Momentum
The Rebels got some momentum back. They had gotten whipped by Memphis but then bounced back against Texas A&M, winning easily on the strength of an overpowering defensive effort against the Aggies, who looked rudderless from the word go. Texas A&M quarterback Kyle Allen completed only one out of 19 passes at one point in the game. He was that flustered by Ole Miss’ defense, which was completely different from its game against Memphis, when it allowed 37 points and could have allowed more if the Tigers had not wanted to run out the clock. This was a needed boost for coach Hugh Freeze, who had to live last week with the knowledge that he sent his prized defensive player, Denzel Nkemdiche into the game as a fullback, leading to a concussion. That’s the kind of move which can cause players to lose trust in a coach, but the Rebels played very hard and well against Texas A&M, so they have reason to think they’ve calmed things down.

Auburn is not calm, not after losing a four-overtime game against Arkansas on Saturday. The Tigers led by eight points in the third overtime, meaning that if they merely stopped a two-point conversion by Arkansas (not to mention a touchdown in the first place), they would have won. Yet, the Tigers could not prevent the touchdown or the two-point conversion, and Arkansas scored eight points in the fourth overtime before stopping the Tigers. The defense is somehow worse than the offense, and the offense dropped almost 10 passes against Arkansas. The team is a mess.

 

Line Moves
The college football odds started with Ole Miss being a six-point favorite, and it has stayed there in early betting. We’ll see how the line moves during Week 9. Expect Ole Miss to gain at least a point if not two. Don’t be shocked to see the Rebels become an eight or 8.5-point favorite when kickoff comes along. Auburn is really struggling on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. This was not expected; Will Muschamp was supposed to be able to make basic fixes to that part of the Auburn roster, but it hasn’t happened. Ole Miss’ receivers could have an absolutely huge day.

 

Notable Injuries
Ole Miss has center Robert Conyers out for the season with a knee injury. Defensive back Tee Shepard left the team. Defensive back Tony Conner is questionable for this game following a knee injury, leaning toward doubtful. Cornerback Kailo Moore is questionable with an undisclosed condition. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is questionable with a concussion. Linebacker Tayler Polk is questionable with an undisclosed condition. Defensive tackle Isaac Gross is out for the season with a neck injury.  

Auburn has defensive lineman Jaunta’vius Johnson listed as being questionable for this game with a knee injury. Offensive lineman Jordan Diamond is questionable with an undisclosed condition. Defensive lineman Prince Tega Wanogho is questionable with a leg injury. Wide receiver Duke Williams has been dismissed from the team. Defensive back T.J. Davis is questionable for this game with a knee injury. Defensive lineman Carl Lawson is out indefinitely with a hip injury. Defensive back Joshua Holsey is out for the season with a knee injury.

 

Handicapping The Game
The Ole Miss Rebels are still in a good position in the SEC West. They know that if they win out, they will win the division and have a chance to play for the SEC championship. The Auburn Tigers not only won’t play for a division or conference title; they might not even play in a bowl game at all. The Auburn situation is in such disrepair that Ole Miss should be able to do what it wants, when it wants. Take the Rebels with your college football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Ole Miss -6 at The Greek

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