College Football Picks ATS - Auburn Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Auburn Tigers Players

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 25, 2016 5:13 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 25, 2016 5:13 PM GMT

Alabama comes into this game as a large favorite, however, Joe Gavazzi claims that statistically, the best college football pick might be going to Auburn instead. Find out why on this article.

Auburn vs Alabama (-17) 3:30 PM ET

At first glance, it would appear that the Alabama run defense will clearly shut down what Auburn does best forcing them to a one-dimensional passing attack which is not their strength. Meanwhile, one would have to be crazy to bet against Alabama, the clear #1 choice in the country. At 11-0 SU, all but two wins, by 5 at Ole Miss and by 10 at LSU, have come by more than this margin. Even the rivalry dog aspect of this game is hard to justify as Saban is 4-1 SU, ATS recently in this contest while the home team is on an 8-4 ATS run.  

Alabama stands head and shoulders above all other teams in CFB, ranked #1 for good reason. The Tide is averaging a beautifully balanced 40 PPG running and passing for at least 225 yards. IN ALL 11 GAMES THEY HAVE DOUBLE RUSHED THEIR OPPONENT GIVING THEM AN HISTORICAL 75% CHANCE TO COVER THE CONTEST. Against FBS opposition, the Tide is 8-2 ATS upholding that statistic. But it is the defensive side of the ball where the Crimson Tide has their reliance. They allowed just 11/253 and just 68/2.2 overland. Where is Auburn to turn?

For it is overland that Auburn has crafted their 8-3 SU, ATS mark. The Tigers warmed up for this contest with a 55-0 shutout of Alabama A&M as they rested many of their key players who were a bit battered and bruised. But a closer look at the statistics tells us that Auburn is the near equal of the Tide for they average 34/474 on offense including a ground game that rushes for 298/5.7. Much like the Tide, it is the defense that has been their money maker. For the season, Auburn allows just 14/335 including just 118/3.5 overland. In short, from a statistical point of view, Alabama does not deserve this level of favoritism. 

There is no doubt that Auburn will play with the greater emotion in this game as double-digit rivalry dog behind 4th year HC Gus Malzahn who has turned around the program after a 2-year slump. Expect both Auburn QB White (shoulder) and RB Pettway (leg) to be available for this week’s action and for the Tigers to claw and scratch their way inside this number. Final thought, if you bet Alabama in this game, how are you going to feel if Auburn scores first?  I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Auburn today.

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Free College Football Pick: Auburn +17.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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