College Football Picks: Arkansas Will Cover -13.5 in Low-Scoring Game vs. Missouri

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, November 24, 2015 10:01 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2015 10:01 PM UTC

It has been a disappointing season for both Missouri and Arkansas in the SEC, but one team can at least end its regular season on a high note. The Hogs are -14 on Pinnacle's college football odds with a total of 46 points.

End Of The Line For Pinkel
Of course Missouri (5-6, 1-6 SEC) is in the market for a new head coach as Gary Pinkel has announced he is retiring after this season -- so this would be his final game barring an upset unless Mizzou somehow gets a bowl invite at 5-7. The 63-year-old Pinkel was diagnosed with lymphoma in May and underwent multiple treatments in May and June. Pinkel is the most successful head coach in the history of the Missouri program, leading the school to a 118-72 record over 15 seasons. Under Pinkel, Mizzou has won five divisional championships (three in the Big 12, two in the SEC), made six of its 10 bowl appearances and has had five teams finish the season ranked in the Top 20 (two top-five finishes). Pinkel came within a game of playing for a national championship in 2007 and 2013.

It's not often  you see a coach carried off the field following a loss, but that was the case for Pinkel last week when the Tigers lost their home finale, 19-8 to Tennessee. The game time temperature of 28 degrees was the coldest in Mizzou history during the Pinkel era.

The Mizzou defense has been terrific all season but the offense has been terrible -- it's averaging 14.5 points, the school's worst since 1971 and third-worst in the nation -- and that was the case against the Vols. The Tigers had only 10 first downs and 223 yards vs. UT. True freshman QB Drew Lock was 13-for-30 for 135 yards and an interception. Leading rusher Russell Hansbrough had only 41 yards.

Tigers senior linebacker Kentrell Brothers had 12 tackles, his sixth consecutive game with double-digit tackles on the season. He leads the nation with 140 tackles. He also has two interceptions and leads the nation in blocked kicks (three) while adding 9.5 tackles for loss, a fumble recovery and two pass break-ups. He should be an All-American.  Mizzou ranks third nationally while leading the SEC with 97 total tackles for loss. It's in the Top 10 nationally in scoring and total defense as well.

Missouri is 3-8 against the spread on college football odds and 1-10 'over/under.'


Hogs' Allen May Be SEC's Best QB
Arkansas (6-5, 4-3) would guarantee itself a winning record for this season with a victory here while also perhaps upping its bowl stock. The Razorbacks are off a wild 51-50 home loss to Mississippi State despite quarterback Brandon Allen completing 30-for-43 for 406 yards and a school-record seven touchdowns -- he's only the second player in SEC history to throw seven touchdowns in a league game (Tennessee's Erik Ainge in 2007 vs. Kentucky). It was the second time this season Allen threw at least six touchdown passes in a game (Nov. 7 vs. Ole Miss) this year. He is the only SEC quarterback to do that twice against SEC opposition in a season. The only other SEC quarterback to throw for six touchdowns against multiple SEC teams in a career was Florida’s Danny Wuerffel. Allen passed Ryan Mallett and Clint Stoerner to become the school's all-time passing TD leader with 63.

But the Hogs couldn't stop MSU quarterback Dak Prescott who threw for 508 yards and five scores while rushing for two more touchdowns. Prescott’s 554 yards of total offense was more than every other SEC team on Saturday. Arkansas trailed 31-14 late in the second quarter, but rallied to score 28 straight points for a 42-31 lead midway through the third quarter. But Prescott led three TD drives in the fourth quarter. The winner was a 14-yard pass to Fred Ross with 3:05 left. The win wasn't secured until Beniquez Brown blocked a 29-yard field-goal attempt by the Hogs' Cole Hedlund with less than a minute remaining.

It was the most points the Razorbacks ever have scored in a game -- regulation or overtime -- and lost. Their previous highest-scoring loss was to Texas Tech, 49-44, in 1990. Arkansas is 6-5 ATS on college football picks and 5-6 O/U.


Last Meeting
The schools closed last regular season against one another in  Columbia and the No. 17 Tigers won 21-14 to clinch the SEC East for the second year in a row. Marcus Murphy scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 12-yard run with 4:38 remaining and Markus Golden recovered a fumble to seal the win. Arkansas was driving for the tie when Brothers stripped Alex Collins and Golden recovered with 2:13 remaining at the Missouri 35. Maty Mauk threw for 265 yards and a TD for Missouri. Hansbrough had 91 yards on 20 carries. Arkansas was held to 288  yards. Allen was 13-for-30 for 133 yards and two scores.

College Football Picks: Give the points, go 'under' at Pinnacle. Missouri is 0-8 ATS in its past eight after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Arkansas is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 after a loss. The 'under' is 6-1 in Missouri's past seven SEC games. The under is 5-1 in the Razorbacks' past six after a loss. 

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