College Football Picks: Arizona Will Get Back on Track & Cover ATS vs. Oregon State

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 8, 2015 6:48 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015 6:48 PM UTC

Oregon State visits Arizona on Saturday in a Pac-12 contest with great betting value for our Bounce Back Blowout college football pick of the week.

Oregon State vs. Arizona (-9), Saturday, October 8, 4:00 PM ET FS1
Oregon State visits Arizona for this 4:00 ET kickoff in Pac-12 action.  It is a must win for the Arizona Wildcats, who are 0-2 SU ATS in the league following embarrassing losses the previous 2 weeks to UCLA on this field by a score of 56-30 and at Stanford last week by a count of 55-17.  This will be the Wildcats’ first home game since that embarrassing UCLA defeat.  Much like their Pac-12 brethren this week, Arizona State and Oregon, we have a quality team who was embarrassed at home, went on the road next week, and now returns to the site of their PHL (previous home loss).  As a result, only Arizona can be this week’s college football pick as the Bounce Back Blowout team.  Best of all, with Arizona losing to the pointspread by over 50 points the last 2 weeks, we are looking at a line that is nearly 10 points less than where it would have been opening week.  That definitively puts the college football odds in our favor.

Oregon State is a team in transition.  Last year, under long-time HC Mike Riley, the Beavers ran a pro-style offensive set, which passed for 275 YPG, but only could run for 118/3.8.  Now, that Riley has matriculated to Nebraska, the Beavers have hired former Utah State and Wisconsin HC Andersen.  Andersen brings his “run first” mentality to this Pac-12 program.  Unfortunately for the Beavers, it will take some time before they make the offensive transition to his style.  There have been highlights with wins over lesser programs, Weber and San Jose.  But when stepping up in class, as they are today, Oregon State lost their only road game at Michigan, then lost 2 weeks ago at home to Stanford.  In that (42-24) defeat to the Cardinal, Oregon State was outrushed 325-111.  It is a sign that the Beaver offense is still a work in progress.

Part of the reason why Arizona has fared so poorly in the previous two weeks is the loss of starting QB Anu Solomon (concussion). Replacement QB Randall is clearly a notch below the veteran starter.  In addition, last week the Wildcats played without LB Wright (foot), who just returned from an earlier knee injury.  He is arguably the best defensive player in the league and will again miss this contest.  Solomon, however, will be a game time decision, based on concussion protocol.  His return could positively impact the rating on this game later in the week.   Even without him, there will be full focus from a high-powered Arizona attack after consecutive weeks of being embarrassed.  The Wildcats still average 42 PPG on offense as a 200 CLUB member, who averages 507 YPG.

With the outstanding value in this line and Oregon State frosh QB Collins making his first Pac-12 road start, it will be death in the desert for a Beaver team who is in the wrong place at the wrong time.  A proud Arizona team, who is the Pac-12 South Division Defending Champion, will take no prisoners in this feel-good Bounce Back Blowout Win!

College Football Picks: Arizona -9 at The Greek

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2831440, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here