College Football Picks - Applying Betting Angles & Trends To Your Week 5 Plays

Middle Tennessee Player Runs With Ball

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 3:29 PM GMT

62. That is the win percentage college football expert capper Ross Benjamin owns this season! Ross has released a pair of week 5 betting angles.

Middle Tennessee State vs North Texas 7:00 PM ET

Game #137-138
Middle Tennessee State overcame a 27-7 deficit this past Saturday night and rallied for a 38-34 win over Louisiana Tech. A hidden contributing factor that kept the Blue Raiders in the game, and enabled them to come back to win, pertained to 0 turnovers committed.

North Texas is coming off a 42-35 overtime win at Rice in their previous contest, and they were aided by a +2 turnover margin. Don’t be deceived by their 2-2 start to 2016. The wins came against Bethune-Cookman and that aforementioned 0-4 Rice team. Despite appearing to be much improved based on a short sample size, keep in mind, the Mean Green is still a horrible 5-19 during its preceding 24 games.

At the time of this writing (9/26), college football betting odds at 5Dimes has Middle Tennessee State as a 15.0-point road favorite.

Any road favorite of 10.5 to 21.0 (MTSU), coming off a game in which they committed no turnovers, versus an opponent (North Texas St.) that had a turnover margin of +2 or better in their previous contest, resulted in those away favorites going 32-8 ATS (80%) since 1992.

I very seldom use road favorites for one of my college football picks, and especially those of the double-digit variety. Nevertheless, this is one I’m going to be strongly considering.

Free College Football Pick: Middle Tennessee -15
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Eastern Michigan vs Bowling Green 3:00 PM ET

Game #147-148
After being one of the elite MAC teams in recent seasons, Bowling Green is headed down the path of a very long season. The Falcons are a miserable 1-3, and their only win came by a mere 1 point over an FCS opponent. Bowling Green has owned a -2 or worse turnover margin in each of their first 4 games.

Eastern Michigan has a winning record after 4 games for the first time since 1995. They’re coming off consecutive wins against Charlotte and Wyoming, and it improved their record to 3-1. The Eagles helped its cause by forcing 3 turnovers in each of those contests.

Any road team (Eastern Michigan) coming off 2 straight games in which it forced 3 or more turnovers, versus an opponent (Bowling Green) that had a -1 or worse turnover margin in 2 consecutive games, resulted in those road teams going 23-5 ATS (82.1%) since 2012. The road team won 21 of those 28 games straight up.

When surfing through major betting sites at this early juncture, Eastern Michigan was +3 across the board. They’ll definitely be on my radar regarding this week’s college football predictions.
 

Free College Football Pick: Eastern Michigan +3
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

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