College Football Picks: Alabama vs. Texas A&M Betting the Spread

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, September 12, 2013 8:19 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 12, 2013 8:19 PM UTC

The top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide travels to College Station, Texas on Saturday for a SEC showdown versus the #6 Texas A&M Aggies at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Get an early edge in the season, read our College Football Betting Tips & Stategies!

This contest will surely be the most heavily wagered on game of the entire college football this week. Not only is SEC supremacy at stake but the outcome may possibly have huge implications on a national scale. According to current football odds Alabama is a 7.5-point road favorite. My college football odds service indicates that 62% of the money has been wagered on the favorite Crimson Tide to this point.

Don't forget to check out our College Football Week 3 Value Picks!

The Revenge Factor

It’s no secret that the Crimson Tide will be seeking big time revenge on Saturday. Despite winning their 2nd national championship in a row a season ago the only blemish on their 13-1 record was a 29-24 home loss at the hands of Texas A&M. Arguably that contest also catapulted Johnny Manziel as the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy that he eventually won at the conclusion of the season.

There's more to this game! Check out our opening Alabama vs. Texas A&M report!

Road Favorite Revenge History

Upon running specific queries regarding revenge games, I discovered some interesting results. College football road favorites that are playing with revenge, and won 11 or more games in the previous season are just 8-20 ATS since 1980. If that contest takes place before game 9 of the season then the road favorite shrinks to 2-10 ATS since 1980 and they lost 7 of those 12 games outright. Adding two additional variables to the equation produces a result that may come as a surprise to some. Using all the above data and adding running queries of if they’re a road favorite of 12.0 or less, and their opponent won 8 or more games in the previous season then they fall to 0-6 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdog not only covered all 6 of these contests but one each of them outright by an average of 14.0 points per game. History certainly doesn’t favor the Crimson Tide in this exact situation. Just like the old cliché goes, “figures don’t lie and liars don’t figure”.

For more info on Saturday's game, read our Alabama vs. Texas A&M Betting the Total article!

Final Analysis

I believe that too much emphasis is being put on the revenge factor. In addition, there’s been a genuine lack of respect among the national media in regards to the Aggies chances on Saturday which has spilled over to general public wagering. There’s still plenty of sports betting value in a top quality team, as home underdog of more than a touchdown. Especially when playing at one of the toughest home venues in all of college football. The Aggies historical 12th man will provide a huge emotional edge in a contest of this magnitude. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the outright upset but I will take the points as an additional bonus for my college football picks.

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NCAA FB Pick: Bet Texas A&M +7.5 on the spread at Ladbrokes

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