College Football Picks: Air Force vs. New Mexico

Joe Freda

Monday, November 4, 2013 2:26 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 4, 2013 2:26 PM UTC

The New Mexico Lobos play host to the Air Force Falcons this Friday night. Who will come out on top during this NCAAF week 11 matchup?

The New Mexico Lobos have cashed with a 3-1 spread record in their last month of NCAAF betting matchups, notching 34.2 PPG through that stretch. Friday night’s card has Bob Davie’s troops hosting the Air Force Falcons in Mountain West Conference action.

Lobos collect in San Diego

New Mexico picked up a third straight defeat in last Saturday’s 35-30 loss to the San Diego State Aztecs, while getting the money ATS as a 14-point road dog. Lobos running backs Crusoe Gongbay and Teriyon Gipson united for three rushing touchdowns, while backfield mate Kasey Carrier marched for 72 yards on 10 carries.

New Mexico’s Cole Gautsche threw for 101 yards under center, held to a 6-for-16 completion rate. The sophomore guided his offense to 21 first downs in its 29 minutes of possession, while tossing his second interception in three games.

The Lobos’ defense allowed 483 total yards, while both sides combined for 13 penalties (85 yards). New Mexico’s Tyler Duncan caught a touchdown strike with 46 seconds remaining, sending the duel’s 65 points OVER the ‘total’ of 58.

Falcons surge past Army

Air Force ended a seven-game losing streak on the same day’s card, pulling away in a 42-28 victory over the Army Black Knights. The Falcons took their first lead in the third quarter with a 78-yard touchdown dash from running back Anthony LaCoste, while cashing as a one-point home dog.

LaCoste finished with 263 rushing yards on 23 carries, while helping his mates move the chains at a 7-for-12 clip on third-down conversions. Falcons quarterback Nate Romine connected 7-of-8 attempts, equaling his season-high of 111 yards through the air.

Air Force’s Garrett Brown fumbled a punt return for the contest’s sole turnover, while Romine and Co. controlled the ball for a sparse 22 minutes. OVER backers collected with the matchup’s 70 points sailing above the ‘total’ of 54 ½, moving the wager to a 5-3 mark in the Falcons’ last eight games.

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Back the Lobos at home

New Mexico opened as a three-point home favorite at The Greek, with early Air Force wagers dropping the ‘chalk’ lean to minus 105. The weather forecast in Albuquerque calls for a clear 53 degrees, with calm winds.

I am laying the short number in this spot, adding New Mexico to my week’s slate of college football picks.

The Lobos have dropped five straight meetings with Air Force, but have collected at 2-1 ATS in the most recent trio of duels. Last October’s battle saw New Mexico cash as a 10 ½-point road dog in a 28-23 setback, piling in 443 total yards in 37 minutes of possession.

Air Force may have hit its peak for the season in last week’s victory, while entering University Stadium with a 2-6 spread record in the team’s last eight contests away from home. The Falcons have been lit up for 43.5 PPG in this year’s two road duels against conference foes, needing double digits from NCAAF odds makers to cash.

Look for the Lobos to end their skid against Air Force here, blooming late with a 10-4-1 ATS mark in their last 15 contests played in November.

NCAAF Pick:  New Mexico Lobos -3 at The Greek 

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