College Football Picks: Air Force vs. Boise State

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, September 10, 2013 3:23 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 10, 2013 3:23 PM GMT

The Boise State Broncos have been known to get off to a fast start in conference play, as they prepare to host the Air Force Falcons Friday. Find out why we are looking to the total with our college football picks in this matchup.

Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds for this Mountain West Conference matchup at Bronco Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Take a look at my College Football Picks: Opening Odds Report for Week 3.

Humbling loss

Air Force will look to bounce back from a 52-20 defeat to the Utah State Aggies as eight-point home underdogs last Saturday, as it lost the statistical battle by 307 total yards.

The Falcons are 2-0 SU on Fridays during the Troy Calhoun era, but both of those contests took place at Falcon Stadium.

Gaining experience

Boise State was able to move past its 32-point season-opening loss to the Washington Huskies, as it captured a 63-14 blowout victory over UT Martin, while going OVER the betting total of 57.5. 

The Broncos entered the 2013 campaign with the second-fewest returning starters (10) in the conference—just one ahead of this week’s opponent in that category. 

Trench warfare 

College football handicappers need to realize that the Falcons will be up against it in the trenches, as their defensive line is giving up 50 pounds on average to the Broncos’ offensive line, while being outweighed by nine pounds on average when the roles are reversed.

Air Force is still dangerous in this situation, as it has covered the number in all four of its games as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992. 

Dominating trends 

There’s no doubt that the Broncos deserve to be double-digit favorites in this matchup, as they’ve won 13 straight conference openers, while also compiling a 34-4 SU record in non-Saturday games during the regular season.

Boise State also possesses the best home winning percentage in the country since 2000.

[gameodds]6/238992/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total with their college football picks, as the UNDER is 9-3-1 in the Broncos’ last 13 home games. 

College Football Pick:  Under 57.5

comment here