College Football Picks Against The Spread - Virginia Tech vs Duke - Week 10

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, November 2, 2016 4:40 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2016 4:40 PM UTC

The young Duke Blue Devils, winless in the ACC Coastal division, host the leaders Virginia Tech on Saturday, spotted 11.5 points by the betting market. Need a pick? We got ya covered.

 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)

Virginia Tech’s 36.2 points per game are its most through Week 9 since averaging 37 in 2010, a season in which they beat Florida State for the ACC Championship and finished with an 11-3 record.

Head coach Justin Fuente’s new-look offense has eclipsed the betting market’s team total in all but two games, posting 76 combined in the last two contests. The passing attack averages 8.9 yards per attempt, 14th most efficient in the nation. Quarterback Jerod Evans owns a 166.3 average passer rating and a 21:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s tossed a pick on just 0.9 percent of attempts, fifth lowest of all FBS signal-callers.

The Hokies are one of the country’s best at stuffing the run, allowing 3.3 per carry. Yielding few yards on the ground forces foes into long third-down attempts, where the Hokies excel at stopping teams. Its 26.9 opponent conversion rate ranks fourth in the FBS.

Virginia Tech is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as road chalk in ACC competition, including dropping two of three in 2016.


Duke Blue Devils (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Duke has won two of the last three meetings, including a 45-43 thriller at Lane Stadium last season as a field-goal underdog. An outright upset this year appears a long shot. The Blue Devils are 4-20 SU and 12-11-1 ATS as a home pup under head coach David Cutcliffe, going off at +9.2 on average.

Duke’s secondary is atrocious, gifting 9.1 passing yards per attempt. What’s worst is the defensive front is good at pressuring the quarterback. It has 24 sacks, tied for 19th most nationally.

Stopping the run may be key for Duke beating the number, though. It is a perfect 5-0 ATS against teams averaging better than 150 yards per game on the ground, but 0-3 versus those accruing less. The Hokies enter with 189.6 per game against FBS competition.

Offensively, the Blue Devils will have to go to the air to compete. Redshirt freshman quarterback Daniel Jones is learning on the job, yet is the unit’s best weapon. He’s 168-of-269 with 11 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and 1,889 passing yards. He’s been sacked 16 times this season, but his decision-making and ability to get rid of the ball is improving. He’s taken a sack just twice in his last two games.


Final Analysis

Currently, the line has Virginia Tech as -11 favorites. Duke’s offense found its groove last weekend, posting 559 total yards against Georgia Tech, the most allowed by the Yellow Jackets all year. It’s a young team, and a confidence-building effort like that should carry over into this weekend. Jones is particularly trending in the right direction. He’s not thrown an interception in consecutive games and tossed for more than 300 yards for the third time this season last time out. Duke +11 is the college football pick.

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Free College Football Pick: Duke +11Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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