College Football Picks Against The Spread - Notre Dame vs Navy - Week 10

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, November 3, 2016 10:53 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 3, 2016 10:53 PM UTC

In an odd turn of events, this year, it is Navy who is considered to be the more powerful team with victories over Houston and Memphis, while Notre Dame at 3-5 SU ATS has fallen off the public’s radar. Here's our NCAAF Pick

 Navy vs. Notre Dame (-6) 11:30 ET CBS TV

Each week in this space, I author a PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME in which the public and linemaker perceive one or both of the teams in a way that is dichotomous to their true power rating.  

Today, however, the situation clearly favors the Fighting Irish.

On October 1st, a 3-0 SU Navy team lost 28-14 at Air Force, when they were held to 57 overland yards. With the CIC in doubt (we will know more pending the Air Force/Army outcome game, as this one is being played), Navy shifted their focus to their AAC-West Conference affiliation. They rebounded from that Air Force defeat with home upsets of Houston and Memphis (both huge LTS winners for weekend followers). Last week’s 52-45 loss at USF represented a huge comeback, after trailing 35-0. 

They scored a TD on the closing play of the game, but were not allowed to kick the extra point which would have covered the spread. After a pair of draining games the last 2 weeks, they now must return to Florida to continue their rivalry with Notre Dame. As strange as it may seem, the Middies real focus may be on the game next week with Tulsa for AAC-West divisional superiority. The numbers are pretty with a 15-5 ATS mark of late, no BBLs since October 4th of 2014 and the emergence of QB Worth with 428 total yards last week. But, they are neither the hungrier nor the better team today.

That would be a Notre Dame team, who stands 3-5 SU ATS in danger of a losing season and without a Bowl bid. That hasn’t happened since 2009, the year before HC Kelly took the reins. With VA Tech and USC still on the schedule, this is a must win for the Irish. They saved their season with a 30-27 win vs. Miami, FLA last week. More importantly, it was the 3rdconsecutive game with a solid defensive performance, as they have now allowed NC State just 198 yards, Stanford just 296 yards and Miami, FLA just 306 yards. 

The Irish are well versed in defending the option, as they often have some form of Navy, Army and Air Force on their schedule each season. Kelly has now defeated Navy 5 consecutive times with winning margins in reverse of 17, 10, 4, 40 and 42. Knowing the Irish have not recorded consecutive spread victories since the middle of last season, it will be an absolute must that they get this victory today, if they are to have any hopes of a winning season.  I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Notre Dame today.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

Free College Football Pick: Notre Dame +7 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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