College Football Picks Against The Spread - Bowling Green vs Memphis

Bowling Green Falcons Player

Thursday, September 22, 2016 1:46 PM GMT

Although the Memphis Tigers come into this game 2-0, our College Football handicapper doesn't really know how good they are. Read on as he breaks down the game and makes his Week 4 College Football pick.

In this inter-conference matchup on Saturday night, we have the Bowling Green Falcons (1-2) of the MAC traveling to visit the Memphis Tigers (2-0) of the AAC. Bowling Green limps into this game after a 21-41 beat down at the hands of Middle Tennessee State, and they are also 0-3 ATS on the year. The Falcons have a new coach, quarterback, and lost their top receiver from last year, so they are in the midst of finding their footing in 2016. Unfortunately for them, before they begin MAC play they have a date with a stronger Memphis Tigers team.

The Tigers are coming off of a 43-7 win over the Kansas Jayhawks of the Big 12, who although play in a major conference, are pretty bad at football. One pundit asked if Memphis was really this good or Kansas just bad, and the consistent response to that question was 'Yes'. Either way, outside of a 66-yard touchdown run by Kansas, Memphis completely dominated that game from beginning to end. It was the second win by a large margin in a row for Memphis, as they haven’t really been tested too much on the year. Their first win of the season was a 35-17 win at home over Southeast Missouri State as a 30-point favorite. Even though Memphis won in a laugher against Kansas, they did show some areas in their game that need improvement, such as only converting 3 of 14 attempts on 3rd down.

Bowling Green will have to overcome a Memphis defense playing with a lot of confidence, and their quarterback, James Knapke, will have to protect the ball much better to do so. In each of the three games so far this season, Knapke has thrown two interceptions for a total of 6 on the year and 3/6 TD/INT ratio. That’s just not going to get it done in any league. Their running game was relied on heavily against Middle Tennessee State, but senior Fred Coppet (66 YPG) and junior Josh Cleveland (76 YPG) don’t have the firepower to carry a game either.

If Bowling Green has any shot in this game, it is to catch Memphis in a spot where they are looking forward to next week, when they travel to Ole Miss of the SEC in their first road game of the season. Bowling Green was the stronger team last year and the situation was in reverse, as they lost to Memphis at home 41-44 before going on the road to beat Purdue. In a look-ahead game, I think 16.5 points is too much to give in the college football odds board, so I am holding my nose here and taking Bowling Green plus the points at 5Dimes, where you will find a 50% Free Play sing up bonus, as my college football pick. Watch for this line to go to +17 near game time.

2016 College Football Record: 9-7-1, +1.20 Units

Free College Football Pick: Bowling Green +16.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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