College Football Picks Against The Spread - Arkansas vs Auburn

Arkansas Razorbacks QB

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 20, 2016 7:26 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016 7:26 PM UTC

The Arkansas Razorbacks travel to the Plains of Alabama, where they will face the Auburn Tigers. Joe Gavazzi considers that this could game could serve up an upset. Read his betting preview here.

 Arkansas vs Auburn (-10) 6:00 ET 

Each week, I select an underdog of 7 or more points, whom I believe is capable of winning the contest outright or at least taking the game to the final whistle. Such is the case today, as we back the BERD (better record dog), taking double digits from a quickly over-heating Tiger.

How fickle is the public, as appropriately influenced by ESPN and the other sports networks?  Following a 1-2 SU start with home losses to Clemson (19-13) and Texas A&M (29-16), in which they were badly outplayed, the public and media were calling for an end to the Gus Malzahn era. In Malzahn’s first season of 2013, you will recall he led the Tigers to the Title game against Florida St. The ensuing 2 seasons saw a downturn in fortunes with a record of 15-11 SU, 7-17 ATS. The offensive output plummeted from 39 to 27 points. Today, however, despite the 1-2 SU beginning, Auburn enters on a 3-game win streak with a record of 4-2 SU overall and 2-1 SU in SEC play. They now have an extra week to prepare, following their 38-14 victory at Miss St. in their quest to avenge a 54-46 loss at Arkansas last season. With a 5-1 ATS log, Malzahn is now pleasing his backers.  Questions at the signal caller position have now been answered with QB White completing 70% of his passes and the defense is allowing just 16 PPG. With a wave of public support, this line is now nearly 10 points from where it would have been to open the season. That has been nearly all a result of Auburn’s performance. And ESPN, along with the other networkers, is questioning whether Auburn is the 2nd best team in the SEC. To that, my answer is a definitive NO!  That will clearly be proven by tonight’s result.

Arkansas has done little wrong. The 2 losses for the year have come from undefeated SEC powers, Texas A&M and Alabama. They did, however, gain 492 yards against the Aggies and 473 against Arkansas.  Today, however, they are asked to play a 3rdconsecutive tough opponent after that Alabama loss and holding on to beat Ole Miss last week (34-30).  With the addition of OC Enos (former C. Michigan HC), 4th year HC Bielema made the choice to open up the offense.  After grinding it out overland at Wisconsin and in his first years at Arkansas, the Hogs actually passed for 268 YPG last season. It resulted in an outstanding offensive year of 36/465.  With QB Allen now finding his way in the offense, Arkansas is again balancing their ground attack with a passing game that is averaging 266 YPG. This has been an outstanding role for Bielema, who is on a 10-5 ATS run as underdog L3Y and has performed with over 90% ATS efficiency as a single digit underdog in his career, when his teams won and covered the previous game.   

I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Arkansas this evening.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

 Free College Football Picks: Arkansas +10Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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