College Football Pick - Week 10 - Memphis Tigers vs Southern Methodist

SMU Mustangs Player

Ian Cameron

Friday, November 4, 2016 8:57 PM GMT

Ian Cameron is back with his analysis of the college football odds for week 10, and with the best play he found on the card. Read on as he provides his pick on the Memphis and SMU Saturday clash.

CFB POW Record: 5-4 56%

Memphis Tigers vs SMU Mustangs

Memphis is 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games heading into this contest including a winless 0-3 ATS record in three road games during that span at Ole Miss, Tulane and Navy. The Tigers defense has taken a hard fall considering that unit was expected to carry the team going into the season while their offense under a new coaching staff and QB got their feet underneath them but the Memphis defense has been totally unable to get stops in recent games. Memphis has allowed 5.5 yards per play and 5 yards per rush this season and have surrendered 1,659 total yards and 128 points in three of their last four games in conference play against Temple, Navy and Tulsa if you throw out the Tulane game in which they played the Green Wave’s triple option attack. 

The Tigers have been unable to stop the run or the pass and have been outgained by 88 yards or more in four of their last five games. Memphis does have a capable offense with decent enough QB play from Riley Ferguson but it hasn’t been enough to overcome their woeful defense of late. SMU on the other hand is starting to get healthier and playing better football as a result. The Mustangs have covered three straight games and won two straight including a huge 38-16 win against Houston in a game they won the total yardage battle by 103 yards. They avoided a letdown by coming out strong with a 21-10 Halftime lead at Tulane last week. Tulane got off to a strong start in the second half to take the lead but SMU finished the game strong last week with 2 TD drives in the 4th Qtr to come back and win 35-31 against the Green Wave. Prior to that, SMU lost a close game 43-40 at Tulsa--the same squad which annihilated Memphis 59-30 on the road last week. 

SMU freshman QB Ben Hicks who struggled mightily when he first took over for Matt Davis who was lost for the season due to a torn ACL injury has played better in recent games throwing 7 TD’s and just 2 INT’s in the Mustangs last three games. SMU’s offense should have just as much success moving the football in this game against a Memphis defense that has been vulnerable in recent weeks. The betting markets have left Memphis overvalued for quite some time and I’m not convinced they’ve caught up to it just yet. SMU is a very live home dog here in a game I expect them to win outright for my college football pick.

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Free College Football Pick: SMU +3 -110 Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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