College Football Pick: Virginia Tech vs. Miami

Joe Freda

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 3:08 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013 3:08 PM UTC

The Miami Hurricanes host the Virginia Tech Hokies this Saturday at the Sun Life Stadium. Who have we decided to back for our NCAAF pick?

The Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies both came away with losses in last week’s NCAAF betting odds, dropping to ATS marks of 0-3 and 1-2 in their latest trio of contests. Saturday night’s gridiron slate has the rivals clashing in Atlantic Coast Conference action.

Hurricanes, Morris fall to FSU

Miami suffered its first defeat in last Saturday’s 41-14 setback to the Florida State Seminoles, thrashed as a 21-point road dog. The Hurricanes were lit up for 517 total yards, allowing FSU’s Jameis Winston to convert third downs at a sizable 11-for-15 clip.

Hurricanes quarterback Stephen Morris threw a pair of touchdowns to wide out Allen Hurns, who came away with five catches for 84 receiving yards. Morris and Co. controlled the ball for a meager 21 minutes of possession, while running back Duke Johnson was left without a touchdown for the third time in four outings.

The contest’s combined 55 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 64, moving the UNDER to 5-3 in Miami’s eight matchups. Hurricanes mates Deon Bush and Rayshawn Jenkins snagged one interception each, while punter Patrick O’Donnell averaged 53.3 YPP in three appearances.

Hokies upset in Chestnut Hill

Virginia Tech was edged out on the same day’s card by the Boston College Eagles, dropping the road affair in a 34-27 defeat. The Hokies were outscored in the fourth quarter, 17-10, with Boston College cashing as a four-point dog for my followers.

Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas tossed a late “pick six” as part of two interceptions, while completing 24-of-41 attempts for 391 passing yards. The senior’s target Joshua Stanford logged a season-high six receptions, while mates Trey Edmunds and Kalvin Cline caught one touchdown each.

The Hokies’ defense held Boston College to 289 total yards, with a sparse 93 coming through the air. OVER backers collected thanks to the final period’s scoring flurry, sending the matchup’s 61 points above the ‘total’ of 40.

Back the Hokies as road dogs

Bet365 opened Miami as a seven-point home favorite, while early NCAAF betting on Virginia Tech moved the premium on the Hokies to minus 115. Miami’s Duke Johnson is now out for the season with a broken ankle, while Sun Life Stadium’s weather forecast calls for 77 degrees and calm winds.

I am tailing the early ‘steam,’ taking the points with Virginia Tech in this duel away from home for my college football pick.

The Hokies shift from last week’s overvalued spot as ‘chalk’ to now being road dogs for the first time since September’s 17-10 upset of Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech’s defense grabbed two interceptions, while holding Yellow Jackets quarterback Vad Lee to a 7-for-24 day under center.

Miami will have its challenges without Johnson’s presence in the backfield, missing the sophomore’s 6.4 YPR. The Hurricanes could also find it difficult to regroup after being left behind in last week’s marquee battle, while logging a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five spots that followed a defeat of over 20 points.

Virginia Tech has cashed with a 5-2 spread record in its last seven meetings with the Hurricanes, allowing a stingy 18.2 PPG through the span’s four matchups in Miami. Look for the Hokies to get the money again here, building momentum back for the season’s late stretch run.

NCAAF Pick:  Virginia Tech Hokies +7 at Bet365

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