College Football Pick: UNLV vs. BYU -25

Friday, November 14, 2014 5:11 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 5:11 PM UTC

BYU picked up its first victory and cover last time out since losing its starting quarterback for the season. The Cougars shoot for a second straight win/cash, and bowl-eligibility, when they host UNLV Saturday night in Provo.

<p style="text-align:center"> <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--> </style> <span style="font-size:13px;font-family:arial,sans,sans-serif;color:#000000;text-align:left"><iframe width="560" height="330" src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></span></p> <p><strong>Rebs-Cougars Betting Odds</strong><br /> <span style="font-size:13px">Most of the <a href="" target="_blank" title="College Football Odds">college football odds</a> market opened BYU at -24 over UNLV, with a total of 63. Most books then bumped the Cougars to -26, and dropped the total to 62.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">Those who believe UNLV could pull the upset here could get a price of +1500 on the Rebs on the moneyline at Sport Bet.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span style="font-size:13px">Rebs-Cougars: The Situation</span></strong><br /> <span style="font-size:13px">With 14 starters back from a team that went 8-6 last year BYU went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 9.5. But Taysom Hill's injury threw a wrench in the works, and at 5-4, with just three games left on the schedule, the Cougars will not play OVER their total.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">BYU opened the season 4-0, with wins over <a href="" target="_blank" title="Check Out this Past Pick for Uconn vs. BYU">UConn</a>, Texas, Houston and Virginia. But the Cougars' whole season changed in a 35-20 loss to Utah State, in which they lost QB Hill for the season to a broken leg. BYU then lost three more in a row, at Central Florida in overtime, at home to Nevada and at <a href="" target="_blank" title="Previous Pick: Boise State vs. BYU">Boise State</a>. Two weeks ago the Cougars snapped that losing streak with a 27-7 victory at Middle Tennessee, covering as three-point road favorites. </span><span style="font-size:13px">BYU then had last week off.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">The Cougars outgained the Blue Raiders 444-228, while getting a nice performance from QB Christian Stewart, who threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns. Since taking over for the injured Hill Stewart has completed 58 percent of his passes, while compiling a 10/5 TD/INT ratio. S</span><span style="font-size:13px">ince losing Hill BYU has been outgained in three of five games.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">On the other side of this match-up UNLV, with 13 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last year, went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 5.5. But with just two victories so far, and just three games left on the schedule, the Rebels will not be headed back to a bowl, and will not play OVER their total.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">UNLV opened this season with a 58-13 loss at Arizona, then beat Northern Colorado, then lost four in a row, to Northern Illinois, Houston, San Diego State and San Jose State, going 1-3 ATS in the process. The Rebs then <a href="" target="_blank" title="Review the Fresno State vs UNLV Pick for Week 7">upset Fresno State 30-27</a>, winning outright as nine-point home dogs. But since then UNLV has lost three more in a row, by scores of 34-20 to Utah State, 31-28 to New Mexico and, last week, 48-21 to Air Force.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">The Rebels got <a href="" target="_blank" title="UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons Pick">outgained by the Falcons</a> last week 542-339, gave up 386 yards on the ground and lost time-of-possession by a 37/23 margin. That's probably why they couldn't cover as four-point home dogs. </span><span style="font-size:13px">On the season UNLV has been outgained in eight of 10 games, and outrushed in nine of 10.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Rebs-Cougars Recent History</strong><br /> <span style="font-size:13px">These former conference rivals used to meet every season, but this will be the first meeting since 2010. BYU has beaten UNLV six times in a row, most recently four seasons ago, when the Cougs routed the Rebs 55-7 in Provo, covering as 19-point favorites.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-size:13px"><strong>Rebs-Cougars Betting Trends</strong></span><br /> <span style="font-size:13px">UNLV is 4-6 on the totals this season, even though Rebs games have averaged 57 points.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">BYU is 6-3 on the totals, as Cougars games have averaged 59 points.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Rebs-Cougars Injury Update</strong><br /> <span style="font-size:13px">BYU is already playing without Hill, and leading rusher Jamaal Williams is now also out for the season with a knee injury.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">On the other side of the field, UNLV quarterback Blake Decker, who's thrown for 2,400 yards this season, run for 300 and accounted for 15 touchdowns, is suffering from a sore hip and his status for Saturday is uncertain.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span style="font-size:13px">Rebs-Cougars Free Pick</span></strong><br /> <span style="font-size:13.3333330154419px">Weather could play a factor in this game; the forecast calls for temps in the 30s, windy and a chance of snow. But that possibility doesn't really affect our <a href="" target="_blank" title="Check Out the College Football Picks">college football pick</a> on this g</span><span style="font-size:13px">me.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:13px">Stewart has improved since first taking over behind center for BYU, and he's had an extra week of practice. UNLV, on the other hand, isn't sure if Decker can go, and the Rebs defense is allowing more than 500 yards per game. So while we don't usually like to go with the betting flow, we do like the Cougars to win this game, with room to spare for the cover.</span></p> <p><strong style="font-size:13px">Free College Football Pick:</strong><span style="font-size:13px"> <a href=";book=in-article-thegreek" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="The Greek Sportsbook">BYU -25.5 at The Greek</a></span></p> <p><iframe allowtransparency="true" border="0" frameborder="no" height="140px" id="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" name="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" scrolling="no" src=";timezone=16&amp;theme=article&amp;line-type=spreadntotals.type=whole-game&amp;odds-type=US&amp;books=19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139&amp;trackers=1409845611531.xml&amp;event-id= 294419" style="width:642px;border:medium none;overflow:hidden"></iframe></p>
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