College Football Pick: Toledo -9 over Navy

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, October 17, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Two of the newest teams in the Sun Belt Conference may be battling to stay out of the conference basement when Georgia State visits Texas State on Saturday.

The more balanced home team should prevail by double-digits at home in an interesting non-conference affair Saturday afternoon when the Navy Midshipmen (3-2, 1-2 away) pay a visit to the Toledo Rockets (3-3, 2-0 home) at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, OH at 12:00 Noon ET in a game televised nationally on ESPNews.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Toledo as a decided favorite for this contest with the current line at -9 with odds of -104.

Toledo is taking a break from MAC play this week for this non-conference contest, and their offense should be too much for a military academy like Navy to handle. Toledo is 2-in conference play and 1-2 outside the MAC, but the Rockets went 2-0-1 ATS vs. a tough non-conference slate.

Navy may be one-half game better than Toledo record-wise at 3-2, but the Middies rank 79th in the country in SOS compared to a more sold 44th for the Rockets so that Navy record must be taken with a grain of salt, especially since the Midshipmen are once again a one-dimensional running team with their triple option, as is normally their wont.

Toledo already showed its worth out of conference even while opening the season with two losses, as the Rockets covered the spread while losing to the Florida Gators out of the SEC and they then gained a ‘push’ in a 15-point loss to the currently undefeated Missouri Tigers. They then used those experiences to their benefit while covering in Week 3 vs. Eastern Washington before the advent of conference play.

The Rockets are averaging 28.5 points and 413.8 total yards per game this season, and they are doing it with great balance ranking 30th in the country in rushing at 208.8 yards per game while also averaging 205 passing yards per contest. Perhaps most importantly in regards to this matchup, Toledo may rank just 64th in total defense, but its strength is defending the run where it ranks 42nd compared to being 92nd vs. the pass, and defending the run is all that matters vs. Navy.

The Midshipmen are 11th in the country in rushing at a whopping 281.2 yards per contest but they average only 105.4 passing yards to rank 122nd in that category, so you can bet that Toledo will put an extra defender or two in the box to defend the option without much fear of the Navy passing game.

Perhaps most importantly, Navy is not a team equipped to come from behind and with Toledo representing a jump in class from most of the teams that the Middies have faced, we could easily see the Rockets and their balanced offense racing out to a big early lead here, especially at home, and that would put the Navy squarely behind the 8-ball and take the Midshipmen out of their comfort level.

That could make this score turn ugly rather quickly, so go ahead and give the points and look for a safe double-digit win by Toledo on Saturday.

[gameodds]6/241037/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

College Football Pick: Toledo -9 (-104)