College Football Pick Prediction - San Jose St vs Boise St

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 1, 2016 6:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 6:06 PM UTC

San Jose St. travels to Albertsons Stadium for a Friday night (10:15 p.m. ET) showdown with No. 24 Boise St. The line is up to -29 in favor of the Broncos, the highest in a Mountain West clash this season.

San Jose State Spartans (3-6 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Offensively, the Spartans are the healthiest they have been all season headed into Idaho and their final three games. This is a good news for a unit that ranks 123rd nationally with 17.8 points per game against FBS competition. Quarterback Kenny Potter is the go-to. He’s thrown for 1,544 yards, 11 touchdowns and 6 picks on 120 of 210 passes.

San Jose State’s run game is feeble, both offensively and defensively. It only averages 3.0 yards per carry, but yields 5.6 to opponents. Foes target the fact, too, rushing the ball nearly 62 percent of the time against the Spartans’ front seven.

On a positive note, the Spartans have not committed a turnover in three consecutive games after coughing it up 14 times through the first six.

San Jose State is 0-10 SU and 4-6 ATS under head coach Ron Caragher when kicking off a double-digit dog. The team struggles on both sides of the ball, but particularly on offense where it averages 15.0 points per game. The 30-point line is the second highest in Caragher’s four-year tenure. The Spartans fell to Auburn 59-13 as 33-point pups back in Week 2 on 2014.


Boise State Broncos (7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS)

Boise State is coming off an unexpected 30-28 loss at Wyoming, likely shattering their chances at a New Year’s Day bowl appearance. The Broncos kicked off 13.5 point chalk. Will head coach Bryan Harsin’s men experience a hangover? Likely not. The program is 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS all-time in the series, winning by an average margin of 29 points.

The Broncos’ 6.9 yards per play ranks ninth in efficiency nationally, fueled by a passing game that averages 321.5 yards per game. Quarterback Brett Rypien owns a 15:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has tossed for 2,359 yards. Junior running back Jeremy McNichols is one of the best in the country and leads all players with 18 total touchdowns.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Boise State’s last 11 contests at Albertsons Stadium. The team is failing to live up to market projections in the scoring department, playing 9.2 points per game below their team total per contest. Scoring only 31.5 points per game, Harsin’s squad is just 2-9 ATS in this stretch.


Final Analysis

San Jose State, although a better team last season, took a 10-9 lead into halftime in this matchup last year. The Broncos blew it open late with a 24-point fourth quarter en route to a 40-23 win. Potter and the offense picked up 474 total yards (336 through the air), and will need to post similar numbers to keep the Spartans in contention. Boise State can explode at any moment, but the offense is less dangerous this season. The spread is too steep for a team that has scored over 40 points twice all season. San Jose State +30 is the college football pick.

Check out all the opening lines in college football at the SBR odds page. Also, shop around at one of the many top-rated online sports books for the best line. Get in on the good number before it goes away.


Free College Football Pick: San Jose St. +29Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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