College Football Pick: Kansas State vs. Texas Tech in Week 11

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 9:15 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013 9:15 PM UTC

The Kansas St. Wildcats travel to Lubbock, Texas to take on the 25th ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders. Find out where we believe the best value lies for this matchup.

According to college football betting odds Texas Tech is a 3.0 point home favorite and the posted total is 59.0. These two teams have seen their last 5 meetings go over the total. Texas Tech has covered 6 of the last 8 in the series.

Take a look at our SBR's College Football Picks for Week 11 Betting Odds Report

Stop the Bleeding in Lubbock

After getting off to a terrific 7-0 start to the season Texas Tech has dropped their last 2-games. Last week they endured a very disappointing 52-34 home loss to Oklahoma St. The Red Raiders dug themselves a 21-0 hole in the first quarter and could never fully recover despite narrowing the game to 28-24 at the half. Texas Tech possesses the #2 passing attack in the country averaging 414.2 yards per game in the air. Junior tight end Jace Amaro is having a monster season with 79 receptions for 1035 yards and 4 touchdowns. Amaro had 15 catches for 174 yards and a touchdown in last week’s loss to Oklahoma St.

The Red Raiders are a dismal 0-6 ATS in their last 6-games in the month of November. They’ve also gone just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Texas tech has gone over the total in 23 of their last 32-games overall including their last 7 following an ATS loss.

Down Year for the Wildcats

This isn’t a typical Bill Snyder coached team at Kansas St. The Wildcats were hit hard by graduation and it’s translated into an uncharacteristic 4-4 start to the year. However, they enter this Saturday’s contest having won their last 2-games. Thus far the Wildcats are 0-2 on the road this season but were very competitive in those defeats. They lost 33-29 versus nationally ranked Oklahoma St. at stillwater in a contest they led 29-23 midway through the 4th quarter. Despite the loss the Wildcats easily covered as a 12.5 point underdog. The other road loss occurred in Austin 31-21 to the Texas Longhorns. The Wildcats squandered a pair of red zone opportunities that saw them come up empty in the 4th quarter of that loss. The Wildcats defense has performed admirably this season allowing 364.1 yards per contest which is good for 32nd in the country.

Kansas St. has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7-games in the month of November. The Wildcats have gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21 versus an opponent with a winning record, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Wildcats have gone over the total in 12 of their last 16 after allowing 19-points or less in their previous game.

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College Football Totals Super Angle

Any team with a total of 56.5 to 63.0 that’s had 450 yards or more of total offense in each of their last 4-games, has seen 52 of those 72-games (72.2%) go over the total since the start of the 2004 season. I recommened the readers take the total for their college football pick.

NCAAF Pick: Kansas St./Texas tech to go over the total of 59.0

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