College Football Pick: Georgia State +16½ over Texas State

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, October 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Two of the newest teams in the Sun Belt Conference may be battling to stay out of the conference basement when Georgia State visits Texas State on Saturday.

The winless underdog could be an overlay when two fledging members of the Sun Belt Conference square off Saturday night as the Georgia State Panthers (0-6, 0-2 away) pay a visit to the Texas State Bobcats (3-3, 2-1 home) at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, TX at 7:00 ET in a game available on ESPN GamePlan and ESPN3.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Georgia State as a big underdog for this contest with the current line at +16½ with odds of -106.

Neither of these teams has been a member of the FBS for very long, and in the case of Georgia State, this is its very first year in the FBS! Texas State made the jump from the FCS to the FBS last season while playing in the WAC before moving to the Sun Belt Conference this year.

Now if you did nothing else but look at the records of these two teams, you would think that Texas State has a decided edge, especially considering its one-year head start at the upper level. After all, the Bobcats are a respectable 3-3 this season while the Panthers are still in pursuit of their first FBS win following an 0-6 start.

However, a closer look reveals that Georgia State has been quite competitive and could easily slide in under another huge point spread vs. another team that is also seeking its first Sun Belt win. You see, Georgia State enters this contest on a 4-0 ATS streak to improve to 4-1-1 ATS during its FBS existence with two of the covers coming vs. the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide and to the West Virginia Mountaineers out of the Big 12!

The Panthers played the first Sun Belt Conference game in their history last week, and they were far from embarrassed while losing by just a 35-28 count to one of the perennial powerhouses of the conference in the Troy Trojans, and they led 28-21 until Troy tied the game with a bit over nine minutes left and then won it on a 54-yard touchdown pass by Corey Robinson with 3:17 remaining.

That was certainly an encouraging conference debut for Georgia State and it now appears to be taking a step down in class in regards to its opponent, and yet the point spread of this game is about the same as last week, when the Panthers covered at +17.

Texas State has been a competitive 3-3 ATS in its own right with its best cover probably coming against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, but believe it or not, even though Georgia State is 0-6, Texas State is technically in last place in the Sun Belt because the Bobcats are 0-2 in conference play.

Perhaps more importantly the Cats failed to cover in either of those conference losses, first getting blown out 48-24 by UL Lafayette and then losing outright as six-point favorites 21-14 to UL Monroe last week. It seems that the Bobcats are highly regarded here at home, first being favored over a conference mainstay like the Warhawks last week and now being prohibitive favorites this week, but what exactly has Texas State done to merit this respect?

While Georgia State many not win this game between the bottom two teams in the conference outright, look for the Panthers to cover their fifth straight game vs. a Texas State squad that has simply not done enough to be giving this many points on Saturday.


College Football Pick: Georgia State +16½ (-106)

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