College Football Pick: Florida Atlantic +24 over Auburn

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, October 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Auburn Tigers are ranked number 11 on the BCS standings, but while they should beat Florida Atlantic while going out of conference Saturday, they may not run up the score.

There could be a somewhat closer game than the oddsmakers expect in non-conference play Saturday night when the Florida Atlantic Owls (2-5, 2-3 away) pay a visit to the Auburn Tigers (6-1, 5-0 home) at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL at 7:30 ET in a game available on both ESPN GamePlan and ESPN3

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Florida Atlantic as a big underdog for this contest with the current line at +24 with odds of +100.

Auburn comes out of the SEC and is currently ranked 11th on the BCS standings after going on the road last week and knocking off Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M 45-41. Still, this is a treacherous scheduling spot for the Tigers, playing a relatively meaningless non-conference game in a potential letdown spot and with a return to SEC play coming up at Arkansas next week.

Now it is very obvious that Auburn has far superior talent to Florida Atlantic, which now hails from Conference USA after moving over from the Sun Belt Conference, but that is hardly the point as the Tigers know they can win this game with minimal effort and would probably be better served by saving their collective energies for the big SEC games coming up, and this very large spread allows for Auburn to win this game by double-digits and still not cover.

Besides, while Florida Atlantic is 2-5 straight up, it has been a very pesky football team while going 6-1 ATS thanks to a defense that actually ranks eighth in the country in passing defense! The Owls’ only non-cover came when they lost in overtime 42-35 as three-point underdogs to Middle Tennessee State, so they are that close to being 7-0 ATS.

The Owls opened up the season by hanging tough with the Miami Hurricanes for nearly three quarters, and since the overtime loss to MTSU they have beaten UAB outright by 14 points, lost 18-14 to Rice and then nearly upset one of the favorites to win Conference USA in Marshall last week in a narrow 24-23 loss as 10-point underdogs.

The only loss by Auburn came at LSU 35-21 while actually covering the spread as a 17-point underdog, which could certainly be categorized as a “good” loss, but again we go back to the scheduling situation here as the Tigers may be more disinterested than usual.

Also, Auburn will probably run the ball almost exclusively here as its passing game is really nothing to write home about anyway, ranking 99th in the country with 194.1 passing yards per game while the Tigers are eighth in rushing with a whopping 300.1 yards per contest on the ground. The solid FAU passing defense helps ensure that, and while Auburn will no doubt be successful running the ball, its drives should be fairly time consuming.

All things considered, Florida Atlantic looks like a live underdog getting more than three touchdowns as it may not need to score much more than 10 points to cover this spread on Saturday.


College Football Pick: Florida Atlantic +24 (+100)

comment here