College Football Pick: Arizona State Will Keep it Close vs. UCLA

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 1, 2015 9:45 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 9:45 PM UTC

Arizona State will take a flight to UCLA's territory with history & revenge factors from a very bad Sun Devils team this year, so where are we placing our college football picks?

Arizona State vs. UCLA (-14) 7:30 ET FOX TV
Arizona State visits UCLA in a key PAC 10 showdown for Southern Division superiority. Last week, Arizona St. lost their conference opener (42-14) to USC. UCLA won their conference opener (56-30) at Arizona. But, looking inside the stats of those games tells a far different story than the final score. UCLA has rookie QB Rosen at the controls. They are off to a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS start in which they have covered by 23 points.  Not surprising considering 18 RS and a Top 20 experienced team. But a closer look at last week’s numbers, begs for a reversal. UCLA was outrushed by Arizona 353-213 with yardage finishing virtually even.That, despite the fact that, Arizona’s top QB Solomon was missing for much of that game. But the success of UCLA this season and the big rep of their program has zoomed this line into double digit territory.  

Things have not been as positive for Arizona State a 2-2 SU beginning comes with a 0-4 ATS log in which they have failed by 63 points to the number.  Last week, in a 42-14 loss to USC, they more than double rushed the Trojans 182-76, finished even in the yardage at 454, but committed 4 costly TOs. In short, the game was far more closely contested than the final score. In addition, Sun Devils will be fueled by 62-27 revenge, a game in which they actually out-yarded UCLA 627-580 but were (-4) net TOs. That sets up a solid play in its own right, considering that Arizona  State HC Graham is 22-10 SU ATS with revenge for a conference loss. That was also their only home loss in the last 2 years and the most embarrassing loss ever for Graham. 

Upside down stat games like this always provide great betting value in the line. Though our team is off a blowout loss, the yardage indications were that the game should have been much closer than the final score. In a similar way, today’s opponent is off a blowout victory. But, a closer look at the stats reveals that the opponent was far more competitive than the final score. Standing alone, these situations create a solid basis for a play. But, when they come together as they have in this game, the profit potential is amazing. Throw in the revenge factor and the specifics around that defeat as outlined above and you have the outstanding basis for a Pac-12 Big Dog play. 

With the college football odds rising in the face of the divergent final scores from last week, we step in with Arizona State as my college football pick.

College Football Pick: Arizona State +14 at The Greek

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