College Football Pick Against The Spread - Mississippi St vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Nick Saban

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 6:54 PM GMT

Is there anyone who can stop Alabama? The NCAA football odds don't say that will happen this week when the Crimson Tide are big home chalk vs. Mississippi State.

Season: 20-18-3 (+0.90)

It's beginning to look like the 127 other FBS teams are going to have to call in Denzel Washington if there's any hope to putting a halt to this runaway train known as the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Okay, admittedly a rather weak reference to Washington's film Unstoppable from a few years back, which also starred the lovely Rosario Dawson, but Nick Saban and the top-ranked Tide truly are starting to fit that film's title. With 21-straight wins in their hip pocket, they'll shoot for a 22nd Saturday at home in a 12 PM (ET) kickoff against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Alabama isn't even expected to face much a challenge this time, the matchup between the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs one of a dozen on the Week 11 card with spreads in excess of 20 points. Alabama is almost laying 30 at 5Dimes where the number is a fat -29, and the initial 55½ point total is holding so far.

 

'Bama Run Defense Scary Good

At least Mississippi State (4-5 straight up & against the spread) comes into this one in high spirits after proving it could beat the NCAA football odds last week with a 35-28 upset of then-No. 4 Texas A&M. Getting 10 at home from the sports books, the Bulldogs churned out a season-best 365 yards on the ground to bolt to a 28-7 lead, Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams each topping the 100-yard plateau.

Dan Mullen and his gang won't find the going nearly as easy this Saturday against an Alabama (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) defense that ranks first in the country allowing but 66 yards per game rushing, that figure coming at a painful 2.1 yards per tote.

The Crimson Tide afforded LSU only half of that per game clip last Saturday in an old-school, smash-mouth defensive 10-0 triumph down in Baton Rouge. They had enough to cash as a touchdown favorite, the Tide's 4th-straight cover, the final never getting near the total.

Alabama has a couple of injuries to think about, starting with wide receiver Calvin Ridley who is questionable this week due to a sore knee. The sophomore leads the team with 46 catches and five aerial scores. Offensive guard Alphonse Taylor wasn't cleared to play a week ago as his concussion symptoms linger, and the senior remains questionable.

 

10 Years Since Last 'Over' Winner In Rivalry

In a rivalry that dates four years before the turn of the 20th century, it's not surprising to see Alabama holding a commanding 78-18-3 all-time advantage with eight consecutive wins coming into this one. Since 1958, Mississippi State has managed to win just twice at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the most recent of those occurrences in 2006 when Mike Shula guided the Tide.

The Crimson Tide went to Starkville last year for a 31-6 victory, Alabama giving up 7 and the final falling short of the total for a third straight meeting. 'Under' bettors have gone back to the pay window eight times the last nine, the 2012 final pushing a 45 point scoreboard hurdle.

All signs point to a nice day in Tuscaloosa where the afternoon high is supposed to hit 70 with a light NE breeze blowing under mainly clear skies. That is, it will be a nice day for Crimson Tide fans as they watch 'Bama roll over another opponent. I'm seeing 40-10 in my crystal ball, enough to cover the current spread though I just can't have any fun doing that. Put me down for a play on the 'under' with my free college football pick.

Free College Football Pick: Under 55½ 

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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