College Football Pick Against The Spread - Boston College vs Florida State

Boston College Eagles

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 5:56 PM GMT

No. 20 Florida State hosts Boston College in a Friday night (7:30 p.m. ET) ACC showdown, 21-point chalk in the contest. The series has played pretty tight in recent years. Check out our pick on the game here.

Boston College Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Boston College is a three-touchdown underdog as of Tuesday, the line moving in its favor after an opener of 23 points. Since the start of last season, head coach Steve Addazio’s squad is just 1-13 SU and 4-9-1 ATS versus ACC opponents. Its only victory during this stretch came two weeks ago in a 21-14 triumph over N.C. State as 14-point pups.

The Eagles average 16.6 points per game versus FBS opponents, better than only Connecticut (15.7), Rutgers (15.4), and Kansas (15.1). It accrues a measly 4.3 yards per play, both the rushing and passing game failing to be very effective.

It’s a run-first team with graduate transfer quarterback Patrick Towles under center. Production is so-so for the third-year starter. He owns a 8:6 TD-to-INT ratio, but has completed 15 passes or more in a game just once this season.

Defense is the Eagles bread and butter. It yields 349 yards per game, 22nd fewest nationally. The unit is particularly adept at stopping the run, allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. It is also aggressive, sacking opponents on 8.8 percent of dropbacks (15th) and forcing 2.0 turnovers per game (22nd).

 

Florida State Seminoles (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)

The Florida State offense is sputtering headed into this contest, averaging just 23.8 points per game in its last four. Despite rolling out the ACC’s second-leading rusher, the NFL-bound Dalvin Cook (1,134 yards), its averaging just 131 rushing yards per game in this stretch. The O-line is subpar, allowing 28 sacks so far this season.

Defensively, the Seminoles were a mess early on, but have turned their fortunes around in recent weeks. They’ve held three of their last four opponents below the projected team total, allowing 20.5 points per game.

Most of the success had come via adjustments after halftime. Outside of Clemson’s 20 points in a 37-34 defeat, they yielded no more than a touchdown in each of the other three contests.

The unit is anchored by defensive end DeMarcus Walker and cornerback Tarvarus McFadden. Walker’s 10 sacks and McFadden’s 7 interceptions are tops in the nation. 

 

Final Analysis

Addazio has prepared his team well for the Seminoles in the past, losing by 14 points twice and a field goal in 2014 in three meetings. The last two seasons he’s held them to 20 and 14 points respectively, able to shutdown their running game. The Eagles held Florida State to 110 and 98 rushing yards respectively. Florida State is 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season and has not beaten a FBS team by more than 20 points all season. Toss out the 52-8 win over FCS foe Charleston Southern, and Fisher’s squad owns a -0.1 average margin of victory. Three touchdowns is a lot in this series, particularly in an expected low-scoring contest. Boston College +21 is my college football pick.

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Free College Football Pick:  Boston College +21

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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