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College Football Over/Under Picks for Week 9: Kentucky to Slow the Pace Against High-Octane Vols

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: October 25, 2022 12:38 PM EDT • 2 min 34 sec read.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. of the Kentucky Wildcats runs with the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kroger Field on October 15, 2022 in Lexington, Kentucky.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. of the Kentucky Wildcats runs with the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kroger Field on October 15, 2022 in Lexington, Kentucky. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

A loaded college football slate Week 9 offers plenty of value when it comes to our top Over/Under picks.

After a 3-for-3 week on our Over/Under picks for college football (special thanks to inept performances by the Missouri, Vanderbilt, and James Madison offenses), we’re back again searching for value on a crowded Week 9 slate.

Below, we look at our top Over/Under picks for college football's Week 9 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).

Top Over/Under Picks for College Football Week 9

  • TCU-West Virginia Over 69 (-110 via DraftKings)
  • Kentucky-Tennessee Under 63.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
  • Temple-Navy Over 39.5 (-114 via FanDuel)

Week 9 College Football Over/Under Picks

TCU-West Virginia Over 69 (-110) ★★★★★

Whether facing good defenses, bad defenses, or any kind of defenses in between, the Horned Frogs have consistently brought the scoring onslaught into each of their wins in the midst of this 7-0 start to the season.

Well, this week they get to face a pretty bad defense. West Virginia ranks 104th in the country in defensive efficiency per ESPN’s FPI. The Mountaineers have allowed 38 or more points to every FBS opponent they have faced except Virginia Tech, which ranks outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency.

TCU doesn’t even rank outside the top five in offensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs have scored 38-plus points in every game this season. Their 42.3 points per game rank sixth in the country. TCU scoring fewer than 40 points almost seems to be out of the question. West Virginia averages nearly 30 points per game and ranks 32nd in offensive efficiency in FBS. TCU’s defense is pliable enough to invite the capable Mountaineers offense into this shootout.

Kentucky-Tennessee Under 63.5 (-110) ★★★★

Six of Tennessee’s seven games this season have seen 60 or more points, with five of the seven clearing this total via DraftKings. The Vols and their No. 3 offensive efficiency in the nation have scored fewer than 38 points just once on the season — but it might happen again this week.

The Kentucky defense is for real. The Wildcats boast a defensive scoring average of 19.2 points per game (15th in FBS). They haven’t allowed more than 24 points in a game yet this season. Kentucky also suppresses scores through its offense, with 27 points marking its high-water mark against a Power 5 team this season. The Wildcats rank 130th out of 131 FBS teams in pace of play offensively, running a play just once every 30.6 seconds. They also lean on the ground game to churn out first downs and limit overall possessions.

That won’t be a viable strategy if head coach Josh Heupel’s Volunteers team races out to a huge advantage, but Kentucky knows it won’t hang around by playing to Tennessee’s high-octane strengths. Tennessee will win this game. But Kentucky will make it ugly in the process.

Temple-Navy Over 39.5 (-114) ★★★★

Temple is one of the worst offensive teams in FBS this season. The Owls average just 12.3 points per game and have scored 20-plus points against an FBS opponent just once this season. They accomplished that feat against UMass, which ranks 119th in defensive efficiency. 

In this week’s matchup against Navy, however, it’s plausible the turnstile Temple run defense will provide all the scoring this total needs to sneak to 40 points. The Owls allow 4.9 yards per carry to their opponents to rank 113th in FBS. That’s a troubling recipe against Navy, which carries the third-best rushing average in the country at 258 rushing yards per game. 

Temple is so bad against the strength of this Midshipmen offense that it’s hard to imagine Navy falling short of its 25.5 points per game scoring average. Though the Temple offense has struggled, the Owls face a Navy team that allows an average of 28.2 points per game to their opponents and has seen three of four home games go Over the total this season.

Where to Bet on College Football Over/Under Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

College football Over-Under picks made 10/24/2022 at 4:16 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.