College Football Odds: Week 12 Games With Biggest Line Moves

Michigan Wolverines

Wednesday, November 16, 2016 4:20 PM GMT

A 1-2 ATS mark on the games with the biggest line moves last week, hitting on Iowa winning outright at +21.5 vs. Michigan but missing on South Carolina (+11.5) and Cincinnati (+12.5). Here are the three top Week 12  line moves at SBR's best sportsbooks.

Arkansas At Mississippi State (-2)

This SEC game opened with the Bulldogs as 1-point home underdogs on college football odds. The Razorbacks are taking a solid mid-week lean. These teams are in a three-way tie for last in the SEC West at 2-4 in conference. But the Razorbacks already are bowl eligible, while the Bulldogs would have to win here and then next week at Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to reach a bowl. MSU was crushed 51-3 at No. 1 Alabama last week in no surprise. The Bulldogs were held to 274 yards and allowed 615. One bright spot for MSU this season has been sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald, who looks like a future star. He entered off huge games vs. Texas A&M and Samford but was only 10 of 33 for 145 with an interception and held to 15 yards rushing vs. the Tide. Arkansas opened the season with three straight wins but has alternated losses and wins since. It was routed 38-10 by LSU in the Razorbacks' home finale last Saturday. The Hogs allowed 390 rushing yards. QB Austin Allen struggled for the second straight game, finishing 15 of 31 passing for 210 yards and two interceptions. MSU won at Arkansas last year, 51-50. Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott had a huge game and MSU blocked an Arkansas field-goal attempt with less than a minute remaining.

NCAAF Free Pick: Bulldogs -2

Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Indiana At No. 3 Michigan (-23)

This Big Ten game opened with the Wolverines at -25.5. I thought the Wolverines' big line at Iowa last week was ridiculous because it was only Michigan's second game outside its own state. The offense sure looked different dealing with all the crowd noise, managing just 201 total yards. Iowa won 14-13 on a 33-yard field goal as time expired. A facemask penalty on Michigan with 1:23 to go was crucial. But at least the Wolverines stayed at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff Top 25. There are two reasons I believe this line is moving down. The first is that Michigan starting quarterback Wilton Speight is out with a reported broken collarbone; yet Coach Jim Harbaugh is only calling Speight questionable and hasn't confirmed any break. Speight threw for only 103 yards with a pick against Iowa but has had a very good season. Former Houston transfer John O'Korn is expected to start Michigan's home finale. He is 13-for-18 for 114 yards and two TDs this season and many thought O'Korn would win the starting job in fall camp. The second reason this line might  be dropping? The Wolverines surely will be looking ahead to next week's massive game at No. 2 Ohio State. The Hoosiers would get bowl eligible with a win. IU will meet its fourth Top 10 opponent this season for the first time in program history. UM has won 18 straight at home in this series and surely will make it 19, but I'm taking all those points.

NCAAF Free Pick: Hoosiers +23

Best Line Offered: Heritage

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San Diego State At Wyoming (+10)

This Mountain West game saw the Aztecs, winners of 17 straight conference games, open as 7.5-point favorites on college football picks. This game actually means little for San Diego State as it already has  clinched the West Division title and will play in the conference championship game. SDSU has the nation's leading rusher in Donnel Pumphrey, who has 1,779 yards on the season and 6,051 career yards -- he needs 347 to move into first place in the all-time FBS record books. The mark of 6,397 is held by former Wisconsin Heisman winner Ron Dayne (bowl game totals prior to the 2002 season aren't included per NCAA policy). Wyoming is in a three-way tie for the Mountain Division lead with Boise State and New Mexico.  The Cowboys own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Boise and play at the Lobos to close the regular season next week. So if Wyoming wins out, it will face SDSU in the MWC title game. But a Wyoming loss here opens the door for Boise State to play in a potential New Year's Six bowl game if the Broncos win out. The Cowboys might have gotten caught looking ahead to this game last week as they lost 69-66 in triple overtime to UNLV. Wyoming's Brian Hill is third among all FBS players with 1,417 yards and 141.7 yards per game. Hill’s 16 rushing touchdowns are fifth in the country, while Pumphrey is tied for sixth with 14. San Diego State is second in the nation in rushing defense (86.4 yards per game). Wyoming lost at SDSU 38-3 last year.

NCAAF Free Pick: Cowboys +10

Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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