College Football Odds: Week 10 Games With Biggest Line Moves

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, November 2, 2016 7:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2016 7:27 PM UTC

A perfect 3-0 against the spread mark on the games with the biggest line moves last week, hitting on Northwestern (+27), Virginia (+31.5) and Louisiana Tech (-28.5). Here are the three top Week 10 line moves at SBR's best sportsbooks.

No. 10 Nebraska at No. 6 Ohio State (-17)

The Buckeyes opened as 12.5-point favorites for this potential Big Ten Championship Game preview. I picked against Ohio State last week in what I thought was a ridiculous 27-point spread against Northwestern. OSU won just 24-20, the third week in a row the team's offense struggled and, not coincidentally, the third straight week the Buckeyes were involved in a close game. That's why I'm surprised this line has risen so much. The loser of this game can forget about the College Football Playoff. Nebraska leads four teams by a game atop the Big Ten West and could still lose here and play for the conference title. The Huskers come off their first loss, 23-17 in overtime at Wisconsin. The Nebraska offense  has really slowed down of late as well. In the last four contests, the Huskers have averaged 25.5 points (down from 38.5 in the first four) and 374 yards (down from 485). OSU is tied with Penn State a game behind Michigan in the East Division, so if the Buckeyes lose they are pretty much done in that race. Quarterback J.T. Barrett has totaled just two touchdowns (passing and rushing) the past two games after having 22 in the first six. Barrett might not have starting receiver  (and kick returner) Parris Campbell, who is dealing with a high-ankle sprain. Defensively, OSU has given up just three rushing touchdowns on the season, tied for the fewest in the FBS. If the Huskers can't run, they have no shot.

NCAAF Free Pick: Nebraska is getting a few too many points on college football odds so take them. The Huskers are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 road games.

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Florida International at Western Kentucky (-30)

The Hilltoppers opened at -26.5 in this Conference USA game. They lead the C-USA East Division by a half game over Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion and a full game over Florida International. WKU lost record-setting QB Brandon Doughty off last year's very good team but it still one of the nation's top offenses in scoring 41.6 points (13th nationally) and passing yards (345.8 ypg, ninth). Western Kentucky has scored at least 44 points in five straight games. Over his past four games, QB Mike White is completing 74.1 percent with 14 touchdowns and averaging 354 yards. That could be a problem for Florida International, which has allowed 86 combined points in back-to-back losses and gives up 34.8 per game on the season (110th nationally). But since Ron Cooper was named interim head coach, FIU is 3-2 and averaging 30.8 points per game. FIU closed last regular season with a 63-7 home loss to Western Kentucky.

NCAAF Free Pick: Florida International can hang within 28 so take the points on college football picks. WKU is 2-6 ATS in its past eight games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

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Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee (-20.5)

The Blue Raiders opened at -17.5 for this Conference USA game. Middle Tennessee is much like Western Kentucky offensively, ranking 15th nationally in scoring (40.5 ppg) and seventh in passing (349.9 ypg). Those two played a 44-43 thriller a few weeks ago won by WKU. Thus MT needs to win out and have the Hilltoppers to lose one more game to reach the C-USA title game. Last week, Middle Tennessee avoided an upset to Florida International as DJ Sanders scored the game-winning touchdown on a 48-yard interception return with 1:22 remaining in the Blue Raiders' 42-35 victory. Four of the Blue Raiders' past five contests have been decided by a touchdown or less and the Raiders are 3-1 in them. Texas-San Antonio is game behind first-place Louisiana Tech in the C-USA West Division. The Roadrunners are off a 31-17 win over North Texas. It's not a good offensive team but ranks second in the conference in allowing 26.9 points. UTSA has had a total of 21 first-time starters (11 defense/10 offense) take the field at some point this season, a number that ranks fourth in the country. These schools met for the first time last season and Middle Tennessee prevailed 42-7 in San Antonio.

NCAAF Free Pick: Middle Tennessee. The Roadrunners have failed to cover their past six on the road.

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