College Football Odds: TCU-Baylor Among Best ATS Picks For Week 10

Baylor Bears

Thursday, November 3, 2016 5:54 PM GMT

A disappointing 1-2 mark last Saturday on my best ATS picks of Week 9, hitting on Michigan State (+24.5) but missing on Houston (-9) and Ole Miss (+4.5). Here are three Week 10 games I feel good about with Intertops college football odds.

 

No. 22 Florida State at NC State (+5.5)

This game really comes down to motivation because the Seminoles from a talent perspective are way better than 5.5-point favorites than the Wolfpack. But how much will FSU have left in the tank after losing 37-34 in a thriller at home against No. 3 Clemson last Saturday? That defeat basically cost FSU a shot at a major bowl game and might  have been the last big ACC game for Coach Jimbo Fisher if you are one of those people who believes he could take the LSU job. Florida State will be without receiver and return man Jesus Wilson due to injury in this one. Wilson is second on the team with 30 catches and he ranks fourth nationally with a punt-return average of 17.2 yards, returning one for a score this year. Safety Trey Marshall will miss the first half after being ejected last week for targeting. Marshall, a senior, was Florida State's leading tackler with 11 at the time of his ejection. The Wolfpack used to give FSU trouble and the Noles lost in Raleigh in both 2010 & '12. But NC State is on a three-game losing streak and was beaten at home by Boston College last week as the Eagles ended their 12-game ACC losing streak. NC State has won 11 games the past two years, but only one of those has come vs. a team that made a bowl game as Florida State will. And the Noles have won each of the past three in this series by at least 15 points.

NCAAF Free Pick: I wouldn't give more than 7 points on college football odds but take Florida State. The Noles are 4-0 ATS in their past four after a loss.

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TCU at No. 17 Baylor (-8)

This should be one of the highest-scoring game of the day, although not quite on the level of Baylor's amazing 61-58 comeback win in Waco in 2014. The Bears erased  a 21-point deficit with 11 minutes to go.  Those teams would share the Big 12 title that year with one loss but both schools just missed out on the College Football Playoff. Last season's game was also exciting, a 28-21 TCU double-overtime home win, knocking the Bears out of contention for their third straight Big 12 title. That was relatively low scoring as it was raining heavily most of the game. Baylor's unbeaten season ended and so did the school's playoff chances last week in a 35-34 loss to Texas on a field goal with 46 seconds to go. Baylor largely dominated that game and finished with 624 yards of offense. Bears QB Seth Russell began to feel concussion-related symptoms afterward but has been cleared to play. Russell has thrown for 1,696 yards with 18 touchdowns while rushing for 440 yards and six scores. TCU has been a disappointment this year and was upset 27-24 at home last week by Texas Tech, the Frogs' third loss in the past four games. This from a team that was 23-3 combined the past two seasons. QB Kenny Hill  hasn't been able to fill the big shoes of the departed Trevone Boykin. Hill, who has thrown a pick in five straight games, was benched in the second half against Texas Tech for Foster Sawyer, but Hill is expected to start this one. Sawyer likely also plays.

NCAAF Free Pick: Baylor. The Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their past five Big 12 games.

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Georgia at Kentucky (+2.5)

If I told you a game between Georgia and Kentucky was potentially for first place in the SEC East Division at this point in the season, surely you would think I'm talking about the Bulldogs. But Kentucky is 4-2 in the conference and a game back of first-place Florida in the loss column. It's quite possible that UF could lose this Saturday at Arkansas and later this month at LSU,  so if the Wildcats can win out they could be incredibly unlikely East champions. A win here gets UK bowl eligible and the school hasn't played in a bowl game since 2010. I think Coach Mark Stoops' job is safe now. Georgia has been a massive disappointment at 2-4 in SEC play and the Dawgs were pushed around last week in a loss to Florida. If UGA loses this game, it might find it difficult to get bowl eligible with No. 9 Auburn visiting Athens next week. Georgia needs to run the ball more/better with their excellent duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.  The Dawgs rank eighth in averaging only 173.8 yards per game on the ground and have been held to under 100 yards in their last two games. Kentucky ranks ninth in the SEC in rushing defense.

NCAAF Free Pick: Georgia. The Dawgs are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 after a loss.

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