College Football Odds: Oklahoma Over West Virginia Among Best ATS Picks For Week 12

Oklahoma Sooners Quarterback

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, November 17, 2016 4:25 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016 4:25 PM UTC

A 2-1 mark last Saturday on my best against the spread NCAA picks of Week 11, hitting on Tennessee (-12.5) and Washington State (-14.5) but missing on Texas A&M (-10). Here are three Week 12 games I feel good about at SBR's best sportsbooks.

No. 9 Oklahoma At No. 14 West Virginia (+2.5)

Not that Big 12 officials would pick sides in this game, but they probably secretly are rooting for Oklahoma because the Sooners are realistically the conference's only shot of not missing the College Football Playoff for the second time in three years. And even OU winning this game and the next against Oklahoma State to take the Big 12 crown probably won't be enough with the Sooners having those one-sided non-conference losses to Houston and Ohio State. West Virginia is the only team in the conference with just one overall loss but no one seems to be taking the Mountaineers seriously as they have beaten absolutely no one yet. How can a team in a Power 5 Conference reach Week 12 without having played a team that was ranked at the time? Indeed, OU will be the first for West Virginia -- and the last with the Mountaineers' remaining games vs. Iowa State and sinking Baylor. WVU has yet to beat Oklahoma since joining the Big 12. If Oklahoma wins this game and Oklahoma State wins Saturday at TCU, that sets up a winner-take-all Bedlam game for the Big 12 in two weeks in Norman. I don't think this one will even be that close. Oklahoma's offense is rolling right now. Baker Mayfield is on track to eclipse Russell Wilson’s FBS season passing efficiency record set at Wisconsin five years ago, and tailback Joe Mixon leads the nation with almost 194 all-purpose yards per game.

NCAAF Free Pick: Sooners -2.5Best Line Offered: Intertops

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Kansas State At Baylor (+2)

We stay in the Big 12 for this game, and this line would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago when Baylor was a Top-10 team and unbeaten. But that 6-0 record was built on one of the weakest schedules in the country and the Bears, thinned out considerably roster-wise with all the off-field problems that led to transfers and a small recruiting class, have been exposed in losses to Texas, TCU and Oklahoma, the latter two blowouts. I still might have liked Baylor here, but it also lost excellent starting quarterback Seth Russell in last week's 45-24 loss to the Sooners to a season-ending fractured left ankle. Russell had 2,126 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and also ran for 506 yards and eight TDs. It's the second straight year Russell has suffered a season-ending injury. True freshman Zach Smith takes over. He was 6 of 15 passing for 144 yards and a touchdown in relief of Russell vs. Oklahoma. Kansas State, meanwhile, is one win from becoming bowl eligible. The Wildcats come off a bye week and you should never bet against them in that scenario as Bill Snyder teams are 8-0 ATS in their past eight off the bye.

NCAAF Free Pick: Wildcats -2Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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No. 23 Florida At No. 16 LSU (-13.5)

This game was to be played Oct. 8 in Gainesville but was postponed by  Hurricane Matthew, even though Gainesville really wasn't affected much by the storm; Miami was able to play a home game the night of Oct. 8. The athletic directors of these schools then couldn't agree on when to reschedule this. Florida didn't want to lose a home game, but LSU said it wouldn't give up a home date scheduled for Saturday against South Alabama for revenue reasons. And really, this Saturday was the only possible makeup date unless you moved the SEC title game back a week. So Florida agreed to move the game to Baton Rouge on two conditions: it couldn't be a  night game (huge advantage for LSU) and the Tigers then had to play in Gainesville the next two years (2017 was to be at LSU and then 2018 in Gainesville as planned). Florida was pretty healthy on Oct. 8 and LSU star running back Leonard Fournette was not. Now LSU is pretty healthy and UF could be missing as many as seven starters due to injury, led by QB Luke Del Rio and the defense's top three tacklers. The Gators win the SEC East with a victory. LSU keeps its Sugar Bowl hopes alive with a win.

NCAAF Free Pick: Tigers -13.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

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