College Football Odds Favor Usual Suspects: Which Familiar Names Have Zero Shot at the Title?

Thursday, June 25, 2015 5:48 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 25, 2015 5:48 PM UTC

As usual, the top of the college football odds list for 2015 is populated by chalky teams and public favorites. Which of these teams is least likely to win the title this season?

<p>There's no such thing as too much football. NCAAF odds have already been released the 2016 College Football Playoff National Championship, and the top of the list features the usual suspects: Ohio State, <a href="" target="_blank" title="Review the Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Schedule for 2015-16">Alabama</a>, Auburn, <em>yadda yadda</em>. These teams will draw plenty of action from their loyal fans. But should the rest of us be putting these public darlings in our <a href="" target="_blank" title="Free College Football Picks by Our Experts">college football picks</a>?</p> <p>As always, the magic answer: It depends. College football tends to be a bit more dynastic than the pro game, with stable coaching regimes making up for the quick turnover of, ahem, “student-athletes.” But some programs are more stable than others. Let's sort through the current Top 10 on <a href="" target="_blank" title="Check out the best prices currently available for the College Football Playoffs Winner">the NCAAF futures market</a> at Bovada and see which teams are least likely to succeed this year.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Lucky Thirteen</strong><br /> First off, here are the 10 teams in question as we go to press:</p> <p><br /> Ohio State 13-4<br /> Alabama 15-2<br /> Auburn 10-1<br /> <a href="" target="_blank" title="Before placing your NCAAF picks, take a look at TCU's 2015-16 Schedule Analysis">TCU</a> 10-1<br /> Florida State 16-1<br /> Notre Dame 18-1<br /> <a href="" target="_blank" title="Here you can find the Must-Win Games for USC Next Season">USC</a> 18-1<br /> Baylor 20-1<br /> <a href="" target="_blank" title="We have an in-depth analysis of the Clemson Tigers 2015-16 Schedule you can't miss">Clemson</a> 22-1<br /> Four teams tied at 25-1</p> <p>All right, make that 13 teams. Given these <a href="" target="_blank" title="Compare All Odds on Offer in Our College Football Betting Directory ">college football odds</a>, we should naturally expect the longest shots (Georgia, <a href="" target="_blank" title="Michigan State Spartans College Football Betting Schedule Analysis">Michigan State,</a> Oklahoma, <a href="" target="_blank" title="We also cover the Oregon Ducks schedule here!">Oregon</a>) to have the smallest chance of winning the title. But that's not the point here. What we're trying to do is isolate the worst picks in terms of value, and right away, we have to point our fickle fingers at <a href="" target="_blank" title="We offer an early look at Florida State's 2015-16 Schedule">Florida State</a>.</p> <p>The Seminoles are already coming off a season where they went 13-1 SU and 3-11 ATS. Was anyone surprised when they got drilled 59-20 by Oregon (–7.5) in the College Football Playoff semifinals? This team was a mouthful of chalk waiting to happen. Now the 'Noles have to replace not only QB Jameis Winston, but a ton of other talented players on both sides of the ball. While Florida State could still win <a href="" target="_blank" title="Six Tantalizing College Football Picks on 2015-16 Win Totals: ACC Division">the ACC title</a>, just getting into the CFP seems overly optimistic at this point.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Le Tigre</strong><br /> Having said that, we feel even worse about Auburn's chances this year. <a href="" target="_blank" title="Find out if the Auburn Tigers Shake Up The SEC">The Tigers </a>(8-5 SU, 4-9 ATS in 2014) have gotten plenty of offseason buzz heading into Year Three under head coach Gus Malzahn. From a longer-term standpoint, we're on board. His hurry-up offense is a thing of beauty, and new defensive co-ordinator Will Muschamp is one of the best in the business.</p> <p>But the short term looks a bit rocky for the Tigers. Like the Seminoles, Auburn has a lot of holes to fill this year, especially on offense with RBs Cameron Artis-Payne (5.3 yards per carry) and Corey Grant (6.1 yards per carry) turning pro. If that weren't difficult enough, Auburn's road to the title goes through Alabama at the Iron Bowl. Tough gig.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Touched by the Hand of Fraud</strong><br /> We can't say we're too big on <a href="" target="_blank" title="Check Out Notre Dame's 2015-16 Betting Schedule">Notre Dame</a>'s chances, either. The situation isn't quite as shaky in South Bend, and the Fighting Irish (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) are only 18-1, but they've got enough question marks on the offensive line to make us concerned. Head coach Brian Kelly also admitted recently that his players were still at-risk academically, after five of them were suspended last year as part of a fraud investigation. That's not good.</p> <p>If we were going to recommend a team on this list, it might be the <a href="" target="_blank" title="Click here to view the 2015-2016 Baylor Bears Betting Schedule Analysis">Baylor Bears</a>. They went 11-2 (7-5-1 ATS) last year with Bryce Petty at quarterback; this year, the onus is on Seth Russell to whip up some magic, and Russell has every chance of performing well under head coach Art Briles. The tricky part will be getting into the College Football Playoff. Sharing <a href="" target="_blank" title="Who Has The Easiest &amp; Hardest Big 12 2015 College Football Schedules">the Big 12</a> title with TCU again won't be enough for the Selection Committee.</p>
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