College Football Odds: 2015-2016 Oregon Ducks College Football Betting Schedule Analysis

Thursday, June 11, 2015 6:53 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 11, 2015 6:53 PM UTC

Mark Helfrich enters his third season as the head coach of the Ducks. In addition to his two seasons, we chose to use college football betting data beginning with the 2009 season for this schedule analysis. 

<p>While that span covers (former Duck head coach) Chip Kelly’s entire head-coaching tenure at Oregon, the 2009 season was also the beginning of Mark Helfrich running Oregon’s offense as Kelly’s offensive coordinator. It is reasonable to conclude that <a href="" target="_blank" title="Oregon Ducks To Win Pac-12, But Can They Return To The College Football Playoffs Without Marcus Mariota?">Oregon has been powered by its offense</a>, and schematically, it has not changed in any material way from the Chip Kelly years to the Mark Helfrich era. Amazingly enough, the Ducks have been profitable against-the-spread (ATS) in all six of those seasons, registering an astonishing ATS winning rate of 59.74%.</p> <p> </p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:85px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>DATE</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>OPPONENT</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>LOCATION (STADIUM)</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:34px"> <p align="center"><strong>NOTES (Oregon Since 2009)</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:40px"> <p align="center">09/05/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:40px"> <p align="center">Eastern Washington</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:40px"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:40px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>Oregon is 2-4 ATS in season-openers.</strong> UO has played FCS schools five times in the six seasons considered. The point spreads were all ridiculously large (Oregon was favored by 50+ points in all five matchups), and the Ducks are 2-3 ATS in those games.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">One of those FCS games had no posted Total on the <a href="" target="_blank" title="See College Football Odds here">college football odds</a>. The other four finished split with two Overs and two Unders.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:13px"> <p align="center">09/12/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:13px"> <p align="center">Michigan State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:13px"> <p align="center">East Lansing, MI</p> <p align="center">(Spartan Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:13px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>Oregon has a phenomenal ATS record in “true” road games</strong> (where the Ducks are playing in someone’s stadium- i.e. not neutral site or Bowl games), <strong>winning more than two-thirds of them.</strong> Oregon is 2-2 ATS against <a href="" target="_blank" title="Find Here the Positives &amp; Negatives For Each Big Ten Team">Big Ten teams</a>. UO beat the spread versus MSU last season in Eugene when the Ducks closed as two-touchdown favorites.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The game went 16 points Over the closing Total.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:24px"> <p align="center">09/19/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:24px"> <p align="center">Georgia State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:24px"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:24px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">This is the first meeting with Georgia State, but Oregon is 2-4 ATS against FBS non-“Power Five” conference teams.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>In all Oregon Home games, the Total has gone Over at the ridiculous rate of 70.73%</strong>, but last season the Over was a modest 4-3 for games played in Eugene.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px"> <p align="center">09/26/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px"> <p align="center">Utah</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Check Out the Positives &amp; Negatives For Each Pac-12 Team">In Pac-12 </a>(and Pac-10) openers, Oregon is 3-2-1 ATS on the closing line, but 5-1 ATS based on the opening line. It should be noted, however, that under head coach Helfrich, Oregon is 0-1-1 ATS in Pac-12 openers.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">UO is 2-1 ATS versus Utah, and that included going 1-1 ATS in Eugene. In all three contests the side with the minority of the public betting beat the spread. The line movement (from opening to closing) indicated the wrong side all three times.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>Even though the Over is 3-0 for this series, for two of those three games the Total just crept Over by 1.5 points.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px"> <p align="center">10/3/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px"> <p align="center">Colorado</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px"> <p align="center">Boulder, CO</p> <p align="center">(Folsom Field)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The public has been all over the Oregon side in this series, averaging nearly 80%, and rightfully so: <strong>The Ducks are 4-0 ATS versus Colorado, but (head coach) Helfrich’s two ATS wins were by an average of two points per game.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Despite the public betting averaging more than 80% on the Over, the Total has been perfectly split with two Overs and two Unders.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:19px"> <p align="center">10/10/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:19px"> <p align="center">Washington State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:19px"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:19px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>Not only does Oregon have a terrible ATS record of 1-5 against WSU, but also the majority side (of the public betting) has been wrong every time.</strong> The last time the Ducks beat the Cougars ATS was in 2009. Since then, they have lost five straight.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Over is 4-2, and the line direction (from opening to closing) has gone up every time.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:29px"> <p align="center">10/17/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:29px"> <p align="center">Washington</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:29px"> <p align="center">Seattle, WA</p> <p align="center">(Husky Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:29px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">This rivalry has been one-sided in recent history with Oregon dominating both straight-up and ATS. Depending on when the bet was made, <strong>the Ducks are either 6-0 ATS or 5-0-1 ATS verses UW.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Over is 4-2. The majority of the public betting has been on the Over in all six games, averaging 77%. It might be worth noting that the last two games played in Washington went Under.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:17px"> <p align="center">10/29/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:17px"> <p align="center">Arizona State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:17px"> <p align="center">Temple, AZ</p> <p align="center">(Sun Devil Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:17px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Oregon is 4-4-1 against the closing spread after a bye week, including a 1-2 ATS mark under head Coach Helfrich.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">These teams have not played each other since 2012, but Oregon has a 2-1-1 ATS edge in the series (using the closing line). <strong>Whatever the record, it should be known that the betting outcome was decided by two points or less in three of the four games.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The three times this game went Over the Total, nearly 85% of the public betting was on the Over. The one time the game went Under (the last time they played) around 70% of the public was on the Over.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:22px"> <p align="center">11/7/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:22px"> <p align="center">California</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:22px"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:22px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Oregon is either 4-1-1 or 5-1 ATS versus Cal (depending on when the bet was placed). However, under head coach Helfrich, Oregon pushed (on the closing line) in 2013 and beat the spread by half of a point in 2014.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Despite a majority of the public betting coming in on the Over for five of the six games in this series, <strong>the Under is 4-2, which includes a 3-0 mark in Eugene.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:18px"> <p align="center">11/14/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:18px"> <p align="center">Stanford</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:18px"> <p align="center">Stanford, CA</p> <p align="center">(Stanford Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:18px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The series with Stanford is tied ATS at 3-3. Even though the series is evenly split, the spread has been off by an average of more than 19 points per game (when compared to the actual results). The Home team is 4-2 ATS. Aside from the 2012 game when the public betting was 50-50, <strong>the minority betting side is 4-1 ATS, and 2014 was that one loss.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The Over is 4-2 (although just 1-2 the last three games), but much like the spread, the Total has been off (the actual results) by an AVERAGE of more than 20 points per game.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px"> <p align="center">11/21/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px"> <p align="center">USC</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">These two Pac-12 powerhouses have not played each other since 2012 when Oregon covered the closing spread by half of a point. The Ducks are 3-1 ATS in this series, but the last time these schools met in Eugene, USC covered the closing spread by 18.5 points.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in"><strong>The games have gone Over the Total all four times, just as the line direction indicated every time.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px"> <p align="center">11/27/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px"> <p align="center">Oregon State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px"> <p align="center">Eugene, OR</p> <p align="center">(Autzen Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">Oregon is 3-2-1 ATS in the Civil War, but they are 0-2-1 ATS in Eugene. <strong>The Home team is 0-5-1 ATS in this rivalry</strong>.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in">The public loves to bet the Over in this series, averaging more than 80% on that side, and they have been rewarded with a 4-2 record. Even so, the lines on the Totals have been quite sharp with no game going Under or Over the closing Total by more than a touchdown.</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p align="center"><strong>©</strong></p>
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