College Football Odds: 2015-2016 Baylor Bears Betting Schedule Analysis

Steve - CollegeFootballWinning.com

Sunday, June 14, 2015 12:41 AM GMT

Sunday, Jun. 14, 2015 12:41 AM GMT

Art Briles took over the Baylor football program in 2008, inheriting a team with 12 straight losing seasons.

In his third season, Briles delivered the first winning season in 15 Baylor football years, and his Bears have not had a losing season since then. This is, however, a betting analysis, so our focus is on betting data. How has Art Briles done against-the-spread (ATS), you ask? In his seven seasons at Baylor, his Bears have had one losing, one “.500,” and five winning ATS years. Over the past four seasons, Baylor has beaten the spread at the rate of 67.31%! What is more, Art Briles equals OFFENSE (but not necessarily defense). That usually equates to games going Over the Total, and Briles’ Bears are no exception; under Briles, Baylor has gone Over the Total in an astonishing 62.35% of their games! Take a look at how they have fared against the individual opponents on their 2015 schedule:

 

DATE

OPPONENT

LOCATION (STADIUM)

NOTES (Baylor Under Briles)

09/4/15

SMU

Dallas, TX

(Gerald J. Ford Stadium)

Baylor is 4-3 ATS in season-openers, but they have only started the season Away once before, and that was an ATS victory.

The Bears have played SMU twice in the last three seasons, and both games were in Waco. Baylor is 2-0 ATS in those games. The Total, on the other hand, is split. The most interesting note about the Total is that it has been way off: The actual combined score of the game has differed from the closing Total (in both of those games) by 26 and 29.5 points. The direction the college football odds Totals line took (from opening to closing) was also wrong both times.

09/12/15

Lamar

Waco, TX

(McLane Stadium)

Although Baylor has not faced Lamar, the Bears have played other FCS teams six times. BU is 4-2 ATS in those games. Interestingly enough, their only two ATS losses versus the FCS were the two times they played Sam Houston State.

Often in these FCS games, Totals are simply not offered. For the last two Baylor-FCS games, Totals were offered and both games went Over.

09/26/15

Rice

Waco, TX

(McLane Stadium)

Baylor is 7-6 ATS after a bye week.

The Bears played the Owls twice- in 2010 and 2011. The games were played at this same time of year (the last week in September), and the spread-betting data was quite similar: Baylor received more than 85% of the public betting each time, and they also covered the spread each time.

Unlike the point spread, the results of the Totals betting were split. From one year to the next, these two teams (more than) doubled their combined points scored from the first game to the second game.

10/3/15

Texas Tech

Arlington, TX

(AT&T Stadium)

This rivalry goes back a few conferences (even before the ole Southwest Conference days), and by straight-up (SU) wins and losses, these teams are tied at 36 apiece. This game is being played at a neutral site for the seventh consecutive year. Baylor is 5-2 ATS, but one of those two losses was in 2014. Three times in this series, one of the sides received less than 30% of the public betting. That pronounced minority is 3-0 ATS, including TT’s ATS victory last season.

The Total has gone Over five out of seven times, and those five Overs were the most recent five games. What is more, it was not even close: The Total went Over by an average of 18.1 points per game these last five contests.

10/10/15

Kansas

Lawrence, KS

(Memorial Stadium)

Despite Baylor being a sizable favorite in all five games versus KU (the last two by 35 and 34.5 points), Baylor is still 4-1 ATS. In the five games, the Baylor side has averaged getting nearly 75% of the public betting. It should be known, however, that BU is just 1-1 ATS in Lawrence.

The Total is 3-2 to the Over, and the Totals line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct side for all five games. The last two games went Over and at least 90% of the public betting on Totals bet that way!

10/17/15

West Virginia

Waco, TX

(McLane Stadium)

Baylor is 2-1 ATS versus WVU, but in their two ATS wins, they covered the spread by an average of just three points per game. In their one ATS loss (in 2014), they failed to cover the spread by 22 points.

In their first two games, these teams scored a combined total of 248 points! (Those games went way Over the Total.) Last season’s matchup had a closing Total of 80.5 points, yet the Under was correct (and by 12.5 points).

10/24/15

Iowa State

Waco, TX

(McLane Stadium)

Baylor is 4-2 ATS versus ISU, but they are a perfect 3-0 in Waco- beating the closing spread by an average of more than 21 points per game.

Overall, the Total has been perfectly split, but the Over is 2-1 in Waco. Even though Baylor has averaged nearly 48 points per game over the past four seasons, they average scoring less than 40 points per game when playing ISU.

11/5/15

Kansas State

Manhattan, KS

(Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium)

As noted with the Rice game, Baylor is 7-6 ATS after a bye week.

In this series, the Home team is 4-1 ATS (including four consecutive ATS wins for the four most recent games). Baylor is just 2-3 ATS, despite getting a majority of the public betting for four out of the five contests. In Manhattan, the Bears are 0-2 ATS.

The Over is 3-2, but those two Unders were the last two games played between these teams.

11/14/15

Oklahoma

Waco, TX

(McLane Stadium)

Based on the closing line, the Bears are 5-2 ATS versus the Sooners (4-3 ATS on the opening line). Baylor is just 2-2 ATS when these teams played in Waco. The line movement in this series has been significant, averaging nearly 2.5 points per game (roughly 47% higher than the average college football matchup over the past four seasons), yet the line direction (from opening to closing) indicated the wrong side for five of the seven matchups.

Based on the closing Total, the Over is 4-3, but it is 3-4 based on the opening Total. For both the opening and closing Totals, the Over is 3-1 in Waco.

11/21/15

Oklahoma State

Stillwater, OK

(Boone Pickens Stadium)

The Cowboys have dominated the Bears ATS, winning six of their seven games, and the public has known it. By public betting, the OSU side has had the majority of the public betting in all but last year’s game. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in Stillwater, and it has not been particularly close: OSU has covered the spread in Stillwater by an average of 22 points per game!

The Under is 4-3 in this series and an even 2-2 in Oklahoma.

11/27/15

TCU

Fort Worth, TX

(Amon G. Carter Stadium)

As with Oklahoma State, TCU has definitely gotten the better of Baylor ATS. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS versus the Frogs, and that includes going 0-2 ATS in Fort Worth. The average spread on this game is 10.5 points, yet the average margin of victory ATS is 13.7 points per game.

Based on the opening Total, the Over is 5-0; it is 4-1 using the closing Total, and that one Under was one of the two times Baylor faced TCU in Fort Worth.

12/5/15

Texas

Waco, TX

(McLane Stadium)

In this Lone Star State battle between the blue-blooded Longhorns and the nouveau riche Bears, Baylor has proven themselves superior by going 6-1 ATS, including winning the last five games. It has been a (largely) one-sided ATS affair, but the margin of victory ATS has been just six points per game.

Baylor is 6-1 ATS in (regular) season-ending games.

Identical to the series with another Big 12 blue blood, Oklahoma, the closing Total has gone Over four out of seven times, but just three times based on the opening Total. The Total has gone Under for the most recent two games, and by an average of 27 points per game.

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