College Football Futures Picks: TCU 2015-16 College Football Betting Schedule Analysis

Steve - CollegeFootballWinning.com

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:48 PM GMT

Since TCU’s head football coach, Gary Patterson, has been the head Horned Frog since 2000 (even though the 2001 season was his first full season as head coach), we have plenty of betting data on his TCU teams’ performance. 

For the purposes of this analysis, however, we chose to use the data from just the last 10 seasons, in part because college football data becomes less valid over time. What follows, therefore, is a 2015-2016 TCU football schedule analysis that is informed by historical betting data that begins with the 2005 college football season and ends with the conclusion of the 2014 season.

 

DATE

OPPONENT

LOCATION (STADIUM)

NOTES (TCU Since 2005)

09/03/15

Minnesota

Minneapolis, MN

(TCF Bank Stadium)

TCU is 7-3 against-the-spread (ATS) in season-openers, using the closing line. (Last year’s season-opener vs. Samford saw TCU losing on the opening line.) They are 4-2 ATS in season-openers played away from Fort Worth. The Total has gone Over in five of nine games (in 2012, there was no posted total vs. Grambling), but it might be noteworthy that in each of their last five (lined) season-openers, the Total went Over.

TCU played Minnesota last season in Fort Worth, and the Frogs covered the (closing) 18-point spread by five points. The Total went Under.

Patterson’s TCU teams have played two other Big Ten teams (Michigan State and Wisconsin), and they lost to both of those teams ATS. In all three TCU-Big Ten matchups, the Total went Under, so keep this in mind when placing your college football picks.

09/12/15

Stephen F. Austin

Fort Worth, TX

(Amon G. Carter Stadium)

TCU has played six FCS teams. What is so interesting about those matchups is TCU is 4-2 ATS on the closing line in those games, but just 2-4 ATS on the opening line. (Using those historical results, if you like TCU, then wait to bet them. If you want to bet against TCU, then bet early.) The average closing spread in TCU’s FCS games was TCU -42.25, but the average opening line was -43.92.

09/19/15

SMU

Fort Worth, TX

(Amon G. Carter Stadium)

TCU is just 3-6 ATS vs. SMU, 1-3 ATS in Fort Worth. However, the Frogs did destroy the Mustangs last season, beating the spread on the college football odds by 25 points. The Total has gone Over in four of the last five contests. It might be noteworthy that the only time a majority bet the Under in this series, the Total did in fact go Under by its greatest margin, 24 points.

09/26/15

Texas Tech

Lubbock, TX

(Jones AT&T Stadium)

TCU is 2-2 ATS vs. TT. The Over/Under is also 2-2. The most interesting note about those four matchups is that, for both the spread and the Total, the line direction has indicated the correct side (or Total) every time.

TCU is 1-2 ATS in Big 12 openers. One of those two ATS losses was to TT in Lubbock (2013).

10/3/15

Texas

Fort Worth, TX

(Amon G. Carter Stadium)

TCU is 2-2 ATS vs. Texas, but 2-1 ATS since joining the Big 12. In those three Big 12 games, the visiting team has covered the spread each time, and by an average of 24.33 points! The Total (based on the closing line) has been split (2-2), but the only time a majority bet on the Under (in 2013), the Under was correct (by 11.5 points).

10/10/15

Kansas State

Manhattan, KS

(Bill Snyder Family Stadium)

Versus K-State, TCU is 2-1 ATS, but the favorite has beaten the spread in those games all three times, and by an average of 10.33 points per game.

For the Total, despite the fact that an average of 73% of the public betting has been on the Over, the line (from opening to closing) dropped all three times. That is especially interesting given that the Over has been correct in two out of the three matchups.

10/17/15

Iowa State

Ames, IA

(Jack Trice Stadium)

Based on the closing line, TCU is 2-2 ATS vs. ISU, but just 1-3 ATS on the opening number. One game in this series was played in 2005 (the Houston Bowl) before TCU joined the Big 12. In conference play vs. ISU, TCU is 1-2 ATS, with their only ATS victory coming last season.

The Total has gone Over two out of four times, but since joining the Big 12, the Total has gone Under two out of three times (including the last two meetings).

10/29/15

West Virginia

Fort Worth, TX

(Amon G. Carter Stadium)

Gary Patterson’s Frogs are an unbelievable 14-1 ATS after a bye! TCU has played WVU three times, and the games have been decided (straight-up) by one point twice, and three points once. TCU is 1-2 ATS vs. WVU, and one of those losses was last season- one of just two TCU ATS losses on the season. The line direction has indicated the correct side all three times, and the underdog is 3-0 ATS.

The Total has gone Over in two of the three games, but last year’s contest was the only regular-season Away Under for TCU in 2014.

11/7/15

Oklahoma State

Stillwater, OK

(Boone Pickens Stadium)

TCU is 1-2 ATS vs. OSU. The Home team in this series has covered the spread each time, and by an average of 15 points.

A clear majority of the public (averaging 79%) has bet the Over on the three games, but the Under has been correct all three times, and by an average of 14 points per game.

11/14/15

Kansas

Fort Worth, TX

(Amon G. Carter Stadium)

Despite getting an average of more than 76% of the public betting in all three contests, TCU is 0-3 ATS vs. Kansas. The Frogs have failed to cover the spread by an average of two TD’s (14 points) per game.

Using the closing Total, the Under is 2-1; using the opening Total makes the Over/Under 1-1-1.

11/21/15

Oklahoma

Norman, OK

(Gaylord Family OK Memorial Stadium)

TCU has played OU five times in 10 years (including twice before TCU joined the Big 12), and the Sooners were favored all five times. TCU holds a 3-2 ATS record on the closing line (3-1-1 using the opener). Since joining the Big 12 (the last three games), OU has received an average of 77% of the public betting.

The Under is 4-1 in this series, and the line direction for the Total (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct result all five times.

11/27/15

Baylor

Fort Worth, TX

(Amon G. Carter Stadium)

TCU is 7-3 ATS in regular season finales, and 6-1 ATS vs. Baylor.

The first three games in the series went Under the Total, but the last four have gone Over the Total by an average of 28.75 points per game.

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