College Football Futures: Breaking Down Notre Dame's 2015-16 Betting Schedule

Steve - CollegeFootballWinning.com

Monday, May 4, 2015 4:24 PM GMT

Brian Kelly has been at Notre Dame since 2010, but we have some betting data on Notre Dame going back as far as the 1991 season. Under most circumstances, we discount (and often disregard) data going back too far because they usually lose validity. In the case of Notre Dame, however, some betting results remain relatively consistent, so it is worth noting.

For example, Brian Kelly’s Irish (covering his five seasons, 2010-2014) are 39.29% against-the-spread (ATS) at Home; in the 19 seasons before Kelly arrived (1991-2009) Notre Dame was 43.22% ATS at Home- still decidedly unprofitable. What follows is a 2015-2016 Notre Dame football betting schedule analysis that is based on Coach Kelly’s tenure- five years that can be called a fairly good representation of Notre Dame’s betting history of nearly a quarter century.

DATE

OPPONENT

LOCATION (STADIUM)

NOTES (Notre Dame Under Brian Kelly)

09/05/15

Texas

South Bend, IN

(Notre Dame Stadium)

ND is 2-3 ATS in season-openers, but just 1-3 ATS when that season-opener was at Home. Despite the Irish being a bad Home ATS team (whether under Kelly or not), that rule’s exception is when they are either underdogs or favorites of less than a TD. ND is actually profitable under those conditions (i.e. narrow Home spreads), beating the spread at a rate of 63.64%.

Coach Kelly’s teams have gone Under Totals in general, and at Home specifically, until last season (when the Over was 4-2 in ND Home games). Despite last season, the Irish at Home went Under 67.74% of the time. Just like their ATS record, the Over is 2-3 ATS in ND season-openers, but just 1-3 ATS when that season-opener was at Home.

09/12/15

Virginia

Charlottesville, VA

(Scott Stadium)

ND is 3-2 ATS in “true” Away openers (not neutral-site games). In all true Away games, ND is one game above .500 ATS, but they are one game below when they are favorites in those road contests.

In true Away games, ND regularly goes Under the Total on the NCAA football odds (63.64% of the time), but last season they went Over in two out of three such matchups.

09/19/15

Georgia Tech

South Bend, IN

(Notre Dame Stadium)

Although this will be ND’s first meeting (under Coach Kelly) with GT, they have played eight games featuring “option teams” in Air Force, Army, and Navy. The Irish are 5-3 ATS in those games, and the Over is 6-2, which is especially noteworthy given ND’s tendency to go Under the Total against most other opponents. In fact, option teams comprise 12.31% of the teams Kelly’s Irish have played, but a disproportionate 25% of all ND games that went Over the Total.

09/26/15

Massachusetts

South Bend, IN

(Notre Dame Stadium)

Kelly’s Irish have been favorites of at least 20 points eight different times. Their ATS record in those games is 3-4-1. Five of those were at Home where ND is 2-2-1 ATS.

For the eight games in which ND was at least a 20-point favorite, the Total went Under five out of eight times. The only two times that there was a majority of the public betting on the Under in those eight games, the public was right both times, and beat the closing Total by an average of -20.5 points!

10/3/15

Clemson

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

In ND’s 10 most-heavily bet games (which can be considered “marquee” games), they are 4-6 ATS. However, the only two played in South Bend were both ATS losses. Of those 10 most-heavily bet games, only five of them were “true” Away games, and ND is 3-2 ATS in those matchups.

The Under went 7-3 in those games. In fact, in ND’s 20 most-heavily bet games, the Under went 16-4 (80%!), despite the fact that the Over received an average of 67.4% of the public betting.

10/10/15

Navy

South Bend, IN

(Notre Dame Stadium)

ND is 2-3 ATS vs. Navy, including going 1-1 ATS at Home. The betting line is usually off in these contests, as the average margin of victory (for either side) against the closing spread is 16.9 points per game.

The Total has gone Over all five times and by an average of 15.5 points per game, so keep this in mind before placing your college football picks.

10/17/15

USC

South Bend, IN

(Notre Dame Stadium)

ND is 3-2 ATS against USC including 1-1 ATS at Home. Last year, however, USC covered the closing spread against ND by 29.5 points- Kelly’s greatest ATS loss since he has been at Notre Dame.

The Under is 4-1 in this series. The only Over was last season, and it just crept Over the Total by half a point.

10/31/15

Temple

Philadelphia, PA

(Lincoln Financial Field Stadium)

ND is 5-2 ATS after a bye week.

The last (and only) time ND played Temple (2013), the Irish opened as the biggest favorites (-30) of Kelly’s tenure at ND. Even though the line would close at -28, ND still failed to cover the spread, winning the game by just twenty-two points.

There was reverse line movement (RLM) on the Total where, despite two-thirds of the public betting on the Under, the line still went up. The RLM was wrong and the public was right, as the game ended 19 points Under the closing Total.

11/7/15

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh, PA

(Heinz Field)

ND is 0-3-1 ATS on the closing line and 1-3 ATS on the opening line versus Pitt. In all four games, ND was the favorite. The Irish are 0-2 ATS at Heinz Field, and in both of those road games, an average of 74% of the public betting was on ND.

The game went Under the Total in three out of four games, including both games in Pittsburgh.

11/14/15

Wake Forest

South Bend, IN

(Notre Dame Stadium)

ND is 1-1 ATS versus Wake. The Home team covered the spread each time. The Irish were double-digit favorites each time. The line did not move at all for their 2011 game, and it only moved a half-point (from opening to closing) for their 2012 game.

Both games went Under the Total, despite the Over getting the majority of the public betting each time. The 2011 game had a prohibitive majority of the public bets (over 85%) on the Over, yet the Under was correct by 16.5 points on the closing line and 14.5 points on the opening line.

11/21/15

Boston College

Boston, MA

(Fenway Park)

ND is 1-2 ATS in “The Holy War,” and the average margin of victory against the spread is 14 points. The only ATS win for ND was the only time they were favored by less than double digits (2010).

The Total went Under all three times, and by an average of almost two full touchdowns.

11/28/15

Stanford

Stanford, CA

(Stanford Stadium)

ND and Stanford have played one another in each of the last five seasons. ND is 2-3 ATS in those games, but they were 0-3 ATS for the first three, then 2-0 ATS for the last two.
ND is 3-2 ATS in (regular) season-ending games, including 1-1 ATS when Stanford is the opponent.

The Under is 5-0 in this series, averaging between 10.5 and 11 points below the Total (depending on the opening or closing line).

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