College Football Free Picks - Crushing Cincinnati Air Raid Too Much For Purdue

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 9, 2016 6:07 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 9, 2016 6:07 PM UTC

The Cincinnati Bearcats travel to W. LaFayette, Indiana, where they will meet the Purdue Boilermakers in a Noon ET time start as televised by the Big 10 Network. Read on for an exclusive College Football pick.

Cincinnati (-6) vs Purdue Noon ET BIG 10 TV

What a fantastic start to the 2016 football season on this site! Combined with a 3-0 ATS mark on NFL-X games, the College Football picks in Week 1 went 7-1 ATS for a combined mark of 10-1 ATS to begin your football season! I assure you that every weekend will not be that good.  But, if you follow the advice in my analyses this season, there is an extremely, high probability you will have more winners than losers.

Though the Big 10 had a successful first week, it is clear that the Bearcats are a notch above the Boilermakers in this matchup.  

Darrell Hazell enters his 4th year as HC of Purdue.  He got the job because of his former affiliation, Kent St., had an 11-3 SU, 10-3 ATS season back in 2012. But the transition to Purdue has not gone smoothly. After 3 years, the Boilermakers are just 6-30 SU. This includes combined 5 wins in the last 2 seasons when Purdue returned 15 and 16 starters respectively. Though the offense increased its output to 24 PPG in those 2 seasons, they averaged only a combined 356 YPG.  An opening week win and cover (45-24) as (-14) was more about a (+3) net TO margin than Purdue excellence. Today, Purdue must face the high-powered passing attack of Cincinnati with their very questionable secondary, who was in the bottom 25% of all FBS teams last year and who allowed 222 PY to E. Kentucky last week.  

The Bearcats will be plenty motivated against the Big 10 foe.  They were clearly looking forward to this matchup when they cruised by Tenn-Martin (28-7) in their opener.  They gave Purdue little on film to analyze.  One thing we do know about the Bearcats is that under 4th year HC Tuberville, they will once again feature a high-scoring attack.  Behind QB Moore, look for yet another high-powered passing attack by the Bearcats.  In Tuberville’s 3 seasons at the helm, Cincinnati has averaged at least 304 PYPG and at least 32 PPG.  For motivation, look no further than Cincinnati redemption, against their first real opponent of the season, for their Bowl loss by a count of 42-7 to San Diego St. last year.

Combined with the fact that Purdue is just 4-14 ATS as home dog L4Y (including 1-5 ATS LY), it makes the Boilermakers the ideal victim for the Bearcats.  Note that these teams have played just once under the current coaching regimes and that Cincinnati won that encounter (42-7).  Finally, note that in the Hazell era, 27/30 losses have come by 7 or more points!  No surprise to this bureau if the Bearcats CRUSH the Boilermakers with an aerial assault that results in a comfortable, double-digit victory. I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me in my College Football pick in Cincinnati this afternoon.

Free College Football Pick: Cincinnati +6 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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