College Football Free Pick - Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs New Mexico Lobos

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 14, 2016 7:54 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 14, 2016 7:54 PM UTC

The Lobos of New Mexico travels to Big Ten country when they meet up with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Let’s examine the college football odds and get on the sharp side of this one.

Lobos Look to Rebound After Heartbreaker
New Mexico welcomed South Dakota State in their 2016 season opener and was installed as 17-point favorites by the college football odds makers. When the dust settled they rewarded all who backed them in their college football picks with a convincing 48-21 victory and an easy cover. Yet last week they packed up and made the short trip to Las Cruces, home of the New Mexico State Aggies, and dropped a gut-wrenching 32-31 decision as 11-point road chalk.

Senior Lobos quarterback Austin Apodaca had a subpar game tossing for just 115 yards and connecting on 12-of-23 attempts. He had no TD’s through the air but did break the plane of the end zone with a 23-yard scamper that gave the Lobos what would be their largest lead of the game at 14-3. Despite four rushing touchdowns, New Mexico could not subdue their intrastate rivals as the Aggies scored the final 10 points of the game, one of which was set up by Apodaca’s first and only interception.


Shop For Live Odds For New Mexico vs Rutgers


Scarlet Knights Tame the Bison
Rutgers was eager to commence with their season after getting waxed at Washington by the score of 48-13 and failing to cover despite the generous 25-point head start. The Scarlet Knights had a Division 1-AA in the Howard Bison coming to their playground and made sure not to disappoint the throng of fans at High Point Solutions Stadium. Though the Knights laid a whoopin’ on the little team from Howard they still failed to cover the enormous 43-point impost and are now 0-2 ATS on the season.

The Scarlet Knights (favorites -5.5 at Heritage, where you can find a 50% Cash Bonus) started slowly which ultimately cost them the cover in this one. After the first quarter, it was Howard in front 14-7. But after that, it was all Rutgers as quarterback Chris Laviano had three TD strikes and 137 yards on 11-of-22 passing. But the real story of the day was the relentless Rutgers ground attack that chewed up the Bison defense for 375 yards. Janarion Grant led the charge with just five carries for 105 yards and two touchdowns.


Betting Analysis
These teams are unfamiliar with each other as this is the first time the schools will face off on the gridiron. Since we have no historical data, we will have to merely evaluate the schools’ first two weeks of football. What is startling to me is the variety of backfield weapons the Scarlet Knight possess and their lethal wide receiver, Janarion Grant. The 5’10 senior can do it all from carrying the ball on a sweep or getting past cover defenders for a pass. He could be the difference maker here.

In addition, Rutgers has a more poised quarterback in senior Chris Laviano. The home field advantage coupled with what I believe to be a stouter defense gives the Knights the decided edge in this one. Not to mention the Lobos are coming off a devastating loss and must travel across the country to do nothing but dwell on it and then try to redeem themselves in hostile territory. I believe the Big Ten will represent as Rutgers gets the job done by at least 10 points in front of their home crowd.


Free College Football Pick: Rutgers -5 ½ 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

Swinger’s 2016 NCAAF Record: 2-1 (+0.9 units)

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