College Football Free Betting Picks - Oklahoma vs Iowa State - Week 10

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 1, 2016 3:41 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 3:41 PM UTC

A rare Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET) Big 12 matchup sees No. 12 Oklahoma laying nearly three touchdowns to Iowa State at Ames. Sooners are a good NCAAF pick to cover the spread in this year's showdown.


Oklahoma Sooners (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Since an unflattering 1-2 start in which all but knocked the Sooners out of the college football playoff picture, they have won five straight following an early Week 4 bye. The high-powered offense is carrying the momentum. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and company have scored over their projected team total in each by an average of 8 points per game. Oklahoma is averaging 51 points and 624 yards per game in this stretch.

The Sooners are 26-1-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in the last 28 meetings against Iowa State, covering the spread in 9 of the last 11 meetings behind head coach Bob Stoops.

Surprisingly, the defense is the difference-maker under Stoops’ reign. It’s held the Cyclones below their projected team total every game of the series for an average of 9.3 points per game. Iowa State, in fact, has never scored more than 20 in a contest. Stoops’ Sooners have beaten the Cyclones by 20 points or more in all but two of the matchups.


Iowa State Cyclones (1-7 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Iowa State has not covered more than seven spreads in a season since 2010, but is well on their way this year with a 5-3 ATS record. Dating back to 2015, it is 7-3 versus the number in its last 10 against Big 12 opponents, losing only half the games by more than a touchdown.

Offensively, the Cyclones’ strength is in the passing game where it averages 7.2 yards per attempt.  Quarterbacks Joel Lanning and Jacob Park have a combined 15:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. They’ve not handed out many freebies despite tossing the ball 34.9 times per game; their 1.6 percent interceptions thrown rate ranks 15th nationally.

The passing game will be integral to Iowa State besting the number. It is a perfect 4-0 ATS under new head coach Matt Campbell when tossing for more than 260 passing yards in a game this season. The Sooners, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS when allowing more than 225 passing yards in a game.

Where Iowa State gets pummeled is against the run, yielding 5.4 yards per carry. The defense gave up 279 rushing yards on 39 carries in this matchup last year.


Final Analysis

Campbell looks to be the answer for an Iowa State football program that has not had a winning season in the Big 12 since 2000. But the turnaround won’t happen overnight, and the Sooners absolutely own this series. Although undervalued in the betting market much of the last calendar year, Iowa State is far too removed from the talent level Stoops enjoys. The average score in this series under his tenure is 41.5 to 9.3 with Oklahoma topping the number by 12.7 points per game. The Sooners offense is clicking and a 30-point or greater victory is not out of the question. Sooners -20 is the college football pick.

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Free College Football Pick: Oklahoma Sooners -21Best Line Odds: at Bookmaker

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